Which ones will be the next to go in Europe

[ppbob]

Hi

Affecting the industri in Europe and I wonder which ones will be the next 5 out of business....or merged or overtaken in Europe in the near future ??
VERY interesting to have the opinion of ALL of You PP guys?
My Call;

1. Alitalia
2. Spanair
3. BMI
4. LoT
5. SAS
............more

Cheers ppbob




Lets have a serious screening of what we expect, interesting........

[clipstone1]

Spanair is 95% owned by SAS anyway, so unless they're sold off they'll only be affected by whatever happens to SAS group......

[F14]

Well after reading the BA press release last week it seems that oil at 120 dollars spells the end to normal operations in the airline world. So the question I guess, is will governments take over the Legacy carriers again?

In the low cost game, obviously those with the lowest costs and the largest amount of cash in the bank will survive.

winners

1. anything from middle east oil rich countries
2. government backed national carriers(air france)
3. true low cost carriers (Ryanair)
4. the chinese


Losers

1. Legacy Carriers without government backing
2. Companies who pretend to be low cost but aren't
3. Charter
4. Commercial training schools (credit crunch)

Personaly I would expect a large number is failures during this part of the cycle and a number of consolidations.

For pilots though I would say the picture over the next 5 years is one of change but ultimately I think the credit crunch will restrict the number of "loans" available for new CPLs and therefore will restrict supply and increase our T & Cs at the succesful companies as they compete to keep their airframes working...

[cesare.caldi]

For me low cost airline near to be closed are Skyeurope and Vueling due to financial problem and price war.

[befree]

BA will still make a profit when oil is $120/barrel as it can reduce its flying programme in the off peak. $120/barrel is were the existing flying programme makes no money at current fares.

I am banned from saying what happens to S-------- if oil is $120,

Most airlines can just retire a few of their oldest planes and drop the odd rotation

[PAXboy]

Bear in mind that European govts cannot give large financial rescues to their former nationalised carriers.

Of the European legacy carriers, Alitalia and Olympic are high up the list to be taken over by others or simply to fail and close and then reopen in the style of Swiss Air / Swiss.

I reckon that British Midland are vulnerable - once the old man has finally retired. Their slots at LHR will make them a prize and it would not be a surprise of LH finally took them in.

[Channex101]

I wish people wouldnt start treads like this, it actually creates rumours, and airlines thrive on them, unfortunatly when your taking about "who will be the next to go" people start to get worried, its their jobs and lives at risk. I have a good friend working for SkyEurope and we have just read this, she is now worried after reading SkyEurope could be nex to go due to their financial state and price war. If this thread carries on then please tread carefully as people start to worry when they see their company name branded all over here as "NEXT TO GO"

[Pilotdom]

Jet2 to be purchased by Easyjet I reckon.

The point made above is a good one. A thread like this effects airlines and there employees however, financial newspapers are printed day in day out with rumours and facts and figures about how well a company is performing. How these opinions are formed could be hear-say, interpratation of fiancial data, or external market forces that could have an effect on performance and cash flow, such as the $100 a barrel oil. As a result this thread is no different, and people's opinions should be taken for what was paid for them..... Nowt

[F14]

Goldman Sachs are projecting a "Super Spike" of 200 dollars a bucket.

Because dollar bills are now toilet paper, everybody is jumping into gold,silver and oil to ride out the storm.

Lots of Nationalistion coming up.....

[Crewing Gimp]

What has Jet2 got that Ryan/Easy would want? Agree with Channex 101 rumours can be very dangerous...

The Gimp

[Charlie Roy]

For me low cost airline near to be closed are Skyeurope and Vueling due to financial problem and price war.

I think Vueling will merge with Click Air (previously rumored), but no idea as to what form this (new) airline would take.
Sky Europe are defo in bad form, if they don't make this summer work, then it'll be their last summer ever.

But before all others, I think Centralwings will be the first to fold.

Ryanair could take over most of Central's interesting routes without even setting up a Polish base. Wizz would also mop of a few of them up for sure. Maybe even Norwegian would be tempted to embark on a second Polish invasion, and reinforce themselves further in the region.

As for Sky Europe's routes, Ryanair are already present in Bratislava, and a Bratislava base wouldn't be such a bad idea, especially in the wake of Sky Europe when the airport would be desperate to replace lost routes / pax / jobs. Ryanair have had on and off negotiations with Vienna, maybe it won't be too long before we see them there.
Sky Europe disappearing off the Prague radar would probably encourage other airlines to look closer at this airport: Easyjet, Ryanair, A LCC version of Czech, Aer Lingus, Wizz, Air Berlin, German Wings, Air One etc...

[Channex101]

Cant see Easyjet buying Jet2, Jet2 is going down a different market now to Easyjet, and althought LS is a PLC, its 2 main shareholders are the CEO an MD, so not enough left for the likes of Easyjet to buy them out.

[eu01]

Originally Posted by Charlie Roy

Before all others, I think Centralwings will be the first to fold.

Very likely. But first, I would legally ban them from using the term "low-cost airlines".

Originally Posted by Charlie Roy

Sky Europe disappearing off the Prague radar would probably encourage other airlines to look closer at this airport.

I'm not so sure. Relatively, Sky is a newcomer in Prague. Even before they came, the market there has already been saturated to some extent. Much incentive for lcc's to develop a bit further would rather give the opening of a brand new low-cost airport (like Vodochody, located 13 km north from Prague) even if PRG-Ruzyne isn't the most expensive in the region.

[The Big Easy]

My Thoughts

1. Globespan........Bust
2. Jet2.................Bought by Ryanair.
3. Virgin..............Bought by Lufty.
4. Openskies........None starter.

TBE.

[840]

F14->Although the price of oil has been going through the roof, the price is paid in dollars. As you say, that's looking like toilet paper at the moment. The price of oil in Sterling or even more particularly Euro doesn't look anything like as scary.

[captainyonder]

Just proof that this is no longer a forum for PROFESSIONAL pilots. Please mods move to the spotters forums. If there were some sensible posts then it may have a place here, but frankly I've never heard of All Italia! The prospect of Virgin being bought by Lufthansa is pure fantasy, as is Flybe going out of business. Globespan will not go bust, they are well financed, suprisingly succesful and load factors are good, the trouble with the long haul program was well documented, but generally they have done very well with their core Scottish routes to the sun. Openskies will happen whether you like it or not, BA have gone public with it, there will be no going back from that now, it would dent their reputation within that particular sector far too much. bmi, LOT and SAS are all perfectly secure, these are peoples jobs that spotters without a clue are so gruesomely enjoying speculating about. If you had a clue and any foundation then they might be valid, but they are uneducated stabs in the dark.

[cesare.caldi]

Skyeurope Passenger traffic figures

February 2007 202,851 Load Factor 85.3%
February 2008 254,609 Load Factor 67.2%
Change Passengers +25.5%
Change Load factor -18.1%

[Richard Taylor]

Captainyonder is correct, this thread is nothing more than a fishing expedition.

Utter waste of bandwidth, sorry.

[Mr A Tis]

Yes a very negative, pointless & possibly damaging thread. Reckon this is one for the bin.

[pee]

Unnecessary negative - yes. Started in a wrong way - yes. Possibly damaging - yes. However, if the subject were expressed in an other way, like: "Why the financial situation of some European carriers is deteriorating?" it would't be totally pointless. It's good to have some idea about the economical status quo.