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Old 24th May 2010, 09:08
  #1381 (permalink)  
 
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planning d day on airport expansion. will be interested how it turns out.
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Old 24th May 2010, 14:58
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Expansion plans passed by 10 votes to 2!!
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Old 24th May 2010, 20:47
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I am surprised at the large majority - thought it would be closer - having regard to the formal objectors that included Bristol City and B&NES councils. The local MP, Liam Fox the Defence Secretary, has also written to the Transport Secretary setting out his objection which is based mainly on what he sees as inadequate surface connectivity.

The secretary of state has the final say and could yet call in the application for a public enquiry but one would hope the overwhelming decision of the local councillors will make this less likely.

Even if he doesn't call it in the objectors could still mount a legal challenge though a request for a judicial review.

This is a major step nonetheless.
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Old 30th May 2010, 22:05
  #1384 (permalink)  

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Aer Arann/Shannon

Persistent rumours doing the rounds, including press speculation, that Bristol will be amongst a number of routes from Shannon to the UK to be announced by Aer Arann tomorrow.

The route was dropped by Ryanair in March this year, along with a number of its other routes from SNN, after operating for several years mainly daily.
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Old 31st May 2010, 09:43
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Aer Arann website showing BRS-SNN on route map
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Old 31st May 2010, 10:10
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Bristol - Shannon

Aer Lingus regional Bristol to Shannon route has been announced :-

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0531/breaking27.html

Good news!
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Old 1st Jun 2010, 21:40
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Continental replacement

rumours are starting from several sources that Delta may be taking over the New York slot, but into JFK, will believe it when it happens, though the figures seem to be picking up on the Continental.

What i think will happen is we will feed into Shannon along with the other recently announced UK departure points for Aer Lingus Regional and operate transatlantic through there clearing US Customs at Shannon.

Mind you one of our local company sources has supposedly been approached by Delta to operate operational back up services, watch this space
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Old 1st Jun 2010, 22:13
  #1388 (permalink)  

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There are also rumours that Delta asked the Welsh Assembly Government to subsidise a route from Cardiff, presumably to New York, at nearly £2 million a year.

I will be very surprised if we see Delta or anyone else operating regular scheduled transatlantic services from BRS or CWL in the forseeable future but am always pleased to be proved wrong in such matters.

Incidentally, the Aer Arann/Aer Lingus franchise to Shannon appears to be 6 x weekly, no Saturdays, from 1 July this year.
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Old 1st Jun 2010, 22:16
  #1389 (permalink)  
 
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I too will believe delta when I see it. They seem to have retreated back down to LHR/LGW and MAN (and even MAN was temporarily dropped before being re-instated), so a BRS service would be a huge surprise.
Also, CO have been the champion of the regions, and if they cant make New York work, I doubt delta would have much success.
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Old 2nd Jun 2010, 08:32
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Would be very interesting to see DL.

The funny thing it seems that since the termination announcement on the CO route, more customers are asking about seats!

One thing that does seem to be repeated in the 'wish list' of destinations is Atlanta, when ever the airport talks about growth...Could we see a curve ball and get DL operating there instead??
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Old 2nd Jun 2010, 14:43
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and even MAN was temporarily dropped before being re-instated
There has been no break in MAN-ATL
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Old 3rd Jun 2010, 23:23
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Well, if we're speculating on TATL...

I'll throw in a suggestion of US to PHL.

Reasons:
* US do operate regionally to the UK
* BRS-PHL is a sensible East Coast destination, which feeds into US's network.
* They're going to be subsumed at LON by the UA/CO merger (where "our" 757 is bound for, to operate the 5th daily LHR-EWR rotation that starts end October, I very much suspect).
* They probably run on a lower-cost-base than CO (interpret as you see fit), and have the right equipment (A330's).

Why not DL?:
* They're not going to give up precious JFK slots for BRS flights.
* ATL seems too far away (what equip?) and won't work for any east coast destinations.
* What equipment have they got that's the right size?
* They have no history of regional operations
* Nobody can be that unlucky to have to fly DL TATL (personal opinion - YMMV)

I concur that interest in the route has gone up since it was cancelled. Indeed, a vague colleague from the US is flying in on it in two weeks as a way of getting to Hilperton. (Admittedly, I steered him in that direction). He just has to brave the increasingly awful service on the Flyer to Temple Meads.
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Old 4th Jun 2010, 00:01
  #1393 (permalink)  
 
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US Airways to Bristol... no offence guys but major reality check needed!

US Airways have just axed BHX-PHL and if CO cant make BRS-NYC work, do you really think Philadelphia would do better?
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Old 4th Jun 2010, 06:58
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We're all speculating, so we're already in a place where reality is loosely interpreted. And sometimes it's fun to be an armchair airline/airport CEO with none of the tedious realities of life.

There's good reasons why DL and US wouldn't come to Bristol. Heck, if CO can't make BRS work for them, why would it work for DL or US or any other airline in the world? So we're all suspending some belief in this conjecture.

We believe TATL should work ex-BRS. What we're debating is what shape might work, if it isn't BRS-EWR on CO?

To expand my thinking a little bit more:
* I don't think BRS-EWR is dramatically underperforming. I just think (as with LH to FRA) it's the "least-worst" cut to make if they need extra aircraft to use up precious LHR slots, and to dominate LHR-NYC. Airlines only have a finite number of aircraft, and funding for new frames (or leasing frames) must be scarce.
* I suggest US because they have the right kind of aircraft for BRS, in terms of technical capability and capacity, and because they have a credible *east coast* hub at PHL. I suspect the majority of BRS-EWR journeys were on connecting to the rest of the US, and that's easier to do at PHL even if the range of routes is less.
* US have pulled BHX, but is that because they're competing against CO? Now they're not at BHX, maybe they might use that aircraft to operate BRS because CO *won't* be at BRS? Less competition = higher yields?
* I'm less convinced of DL because I can't immediately think of what they'd use to operate it, and where to. JFK seems unlikely because of pressure on slots, and ATL is wayyyy to far west to be credible for IAD/JFK/BOS etc. CVG? Seems unlikely.

Ultimately, none of us know if TATL ex-BRS is viable.

I leave you with this experience, from Tuesday of this week. I flew BRS-EWR, connecting to IAH. We left BRS +75min, landed EWR +60min at Terminal B, leaving us 50min to do immigration, customs, re-check bags, change to Terminal C and get to gate 110 (which is right at the end of the central pier). One of the passengers said "I normally go to LHR and fly CO to IAH direct, and this is exactly why".

He didn't make his IAH connection. He won't do BRS-EWR-IAH again.
(I was CO*G and hand-luggage only and made it with 6 minutes to spare).
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Old 4th Jun 2010, 09:07
  #1395 (permalink)  
 
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Did the EWR flight ever do well? Its had a good six year stint- so something must've gone well at some point.
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Old 4th Jun 2010, 11:22
  #1396 (permalink)  
 
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I think the flight did do well. It appears the main problem was the BizFirst traffic. After all this is really where the money is made and from reading trade press it was noted that it just wasn't filling up from the front.

It is a shame as I have seen the new BizFirst seats and they really are a great product. But, you never know, things could pick up and we have until Nov before the service is stopped. As a company we are still promoting the flight and as I mentioned before, intrest has increased, whether that is to do with the announcement or possibly because people are starting to travel again...
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Old 4th Jun 2010, 15:11
  #1397 (permalink)  
 
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The new BusinessFirst seats are exceptional. I got one into BRS a couple of weeks ago, and it knocked socks off LH's flat beds. My only gripe was that the space for my feet was a bit cramped when lying fully flat, but that's primarily the fault of my huge feet, and easily fixed by being in 1A/B/E/F.

I think CO's gone. A late rally now is too late, as they schedules are cast and the aircraft planned out elsewhere. But it might give another operator confidence to jump into the opportunity.
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Old 4th Jun 2010, 16:58
  #1398 (permalink)  
 
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I agree. I can't see CO changing their mind and I can't see another US airline coming in. LHR is the prize and most have the slots they want. I'm not necessarily surprised that business didn't sell. The airline has only just moved to Star and many firms continued to send employees to LHR, either though ignorance or choice. The airport worked tirelessly to retain the service and I don't think they could have done anything else. The truth is that there are a lot more affluent short break takers in the South West than there are business travelers and they filled the back of the plane, not the all important front.
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Old 6th Jun 2010, 21:58
  #1399 (permalink)  

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Continental BRS-EWR

Did the EWR flight ever do well? Its had a good six year stint- so something must've gone well at some point.
I have a copy of an article from the Houston (Texas) Chronicle dated 18 January 2007 (18 months after the BRS-EWR route commenced in May 2005) that discusses in considerable detail Continental's strategy 'that enables it to expand its European presence despite its inability to get coveted landing rights at London's Heathrow Airport'.

The article went on to describe how the airline had in recent years begun to fly from its base at Newark on secondary European routes and the policy was said to be paying off.

The bulk of the article dealt with the Bristol route as an example of CO's strategy, with lots of quotes from the airline, airport and local and international business/aviation analysts. The consensus was positive towards CO's initiative.

The Houston Chronicle stated that Bristol Airport had given Continental incentives, including a suspension of landing fees for the first three years.

However, I believe the key phrase in the article was its (CO) inability to get coveted landing rights at London's Heathrow Airport.

It's tempting to speculate that CO would not have axed the BRS-EWR link had they still been excluded from LHR. However, once they gained a foothold followed by an ability to increase schedules it was clear their strategy of operating to some of the smaller regional airports was likely to be reviewed. BRS was probably always the most at risk because of its proximity to LHR and its smaller catchment compared to the other LHR neighbour at BHX.

Bristol's overall passenger numbers were also lower than those to the other UK regional airports served by CO from EWR though of course that alone does not necessarily prove anything because the yields are commercially sensitive, but there is much anecdotal and other evidence to suggest that the business-first take-up from BRS was often disappointing.

As a comparison CO's Belfast International-Newark route commenced a week after BRS-EWR. From May 2005 to April 2010 Bristol carried 427,821 passengers and Belfast 487,388 which equates to an average of 1,000 extra passengers each month on the Northern Ireland route, or 16-17 per flight, a not insignificant near 10% of the seating capacity of CO's Boeing 757 aircraft.

Bristol did quite well in the main summer months with passengers numbers, the two best months being August and September 2009 with respectively the highest monthly total of the five years (so far anyway!) at 9,622 (ave 155, load factor 89%), and the highest load factor (over 91%) after the schedule had been reduced in mid September 2009 to 6 x weekly from daily for the first time in a summer period. It's back at daily this summer.

Lot's of ifs, ands and maybes, but I believe the killer for Bristol was CO's access to Heathrow.
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Old 6th Jun 2010, 22:52
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Just at EWR waiting for CO076 to BRS (gate C125) in BusinessFirst (ironically).

The lineup of flights here in the evening is testimony to CO's distributed strategy of flying to secondary cities all over Europe. Strange to believe that SNN is better loading than BRS, but I suppose so. I notice CO are offering 5k bonus miles on flights departing BFS, so maybe not all is quite so well there either?

US don't have much footprint at LHR, and have some operations out of LGW. That might be a help. Or not. Who knows....
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