Wikiposts
Search
Airlines, Airports & Routes Topics about airports, routes and airline business.

BRISTOL - 4

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 12th May 2012, 14:50
  #1981 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Bristol
Age: 47
Posts: 75
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Well Easyjet's longer routes include Sharm, Tel Aviv and Reykjavyk. I wonder if we might see any of those soon?

On a different note, I just saw a large billboard on the M32 advertising BHX to Singapore daily on Turkish Airlines. Surely Turkish are the sort of carrier BRS should be looking at enticing? They seem to be expanding at a decent pace and would open up Asia from Bristol. Just a thought as I drove past! I bet you don't see many billboards for Bristol Airport when in Birmingham.
bobsyerunlce is offline  
Old 12th May 2012, 17:14
  #1982 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: BHX LXR ASW
Posts: 2,272
Received 5 Likes on 3 Posts
I bet you don't see many billboards for Bristol Airport when in Birmingham.
You see Thomson long haul flights from EMA advertised in Birmingham city centre.

Reminds me of those Carling ads of the 90's. A giant poster advertising Brum's new city airport. Yes you guessed it the slogan said "I bet he drinks Carling Black Label'
crewmeal is offline  
Old 14th May 2012, 21:58
  #1983 (permalink)  

Brunel to Concorde
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Virtute et Industria, et Sumorsaete Ealle
Posts: 2,283
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
http://www.aaib.gov.uk/cms_resources...BK%2005-12.pdf

The AAIB report into the incident at BRS on 3 October 2010 where Thomson Boeing 767-300, G-OOBK, sustained significant structural damage on landing on 09.
MerchantVenturer is offline  
Old 16th May 2012, 21:06
  #1984 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: BRISTOL
Posts: 763
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Flybe dropping BHD from June, low figures blamed according to BBC
WATABENCH is offline  
Old 17th May 2012, 08:22
  #1985 (permalink)  
StandupfortheUlstermen
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Peoples' Democratic Republic of Wurzelsetshire
Age: 53
Posts: 1,182
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Not surprised at that considering Flybe's prices. They don't do themselves any favours.
Standard Noise is offline  
Old 28th May 2012, 21:33
  #1986 (permalink)  

Brunel to Concorde
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Virtute et Industria, et Sumorsaete Ealle
Posts: 2,283
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Flybe dropping BHD

The flight times didn't help the route - it was impossible to have a full day at either Bristol or Belfast with the morning service arriving at BRS at mid morning and back at Belfast late morning.

When Ryanair operated the route the first flight was early morning - like easyJet to BFS.

In April easyJet carried 19,380 passengers to BFS, up 35% on a year ago, whereas Flybe had 3,902 passengers on the BHD, down 1% on last year. Ryanair was handling up to 14,000 a month to BHD with easyJet the same sort of figure then to BFS.

BRS - where to from here?

Health warning: anyone put off by lists of figures will probably be asleep long before the end of this post.

I've been looking at past forecasts for Bristol Airport and they show just how hard it is to accurately assess how things will go in the future, and I have no doubt this does not apply just to BRS.

For example, I have in my possession literature published in 1993 with that most enthusiastic supporter and proponent of all things BRS, the late Les Wilson (then airport MD), clearly the guiding light. The airport wanted a new terminal building to cater for what they hoped would be a doubling of passenger numbers within ten years. The 1992 figure had been just over 1 mppa and they were looking to 2 mppa in 2003 which was considered quite a challenge.

Well, the finance was put in place when the airport was part-privatised in 1997 and the terminal was opened in 2000. By 2003 the airport had not doubled its passenger numbers, it had increased them nearly four-fold to 3.887 mppa, but of course no-one could have forecast the impact that low-cost airlines would make on previously rather sleepy regional airports- not even dear old Les who had been tragically killed in a car accident in 1995 - what would he have made of his airport handling 6 mppa within 15 years of his 1993 paper?

In 2006 BRS produced its amended master plan following widespread consultation on the draft plan which, unsurprisingly because of the airport's progress in the previous decade, envisaged continued growth though not at the outperformance rate of the previous ten years.

Forecast passenger figures from the 2005 figure of 5.199 mppa were: 2010 6.695; 2015 8.076; 2020 9.271; 2025 10.812; 2030 12.476.

Since 2005 the figures have actually been: 2006 5.710; 2007 5.883; 2008 6.229; 2009 5.615; 2010 5.723; 2011 5.768.

The airport has since recognised that the master plan's annual passenger figures will take longer to achieve than was believed to be the case in 2005/2006 and the planning consents for its major infrastructure expansion set a limit of 10 mppa anyway.

Something else the master plan didn't anticipate was the number of passengers per atm. In 2005 it was 86 and the master plan thought that 110 would not be reached until 2025. In 2011 the figure was 109, well above the 2020 forecast figure of 103. In fact, 104 had been reached by 2008.

The number of annual atms has decreased each year since 2006 when in in that year nearly 66,000 atms were needed to service 5.710 mppa, but in 2011 fewer than 53,000 were required for 5.768 mppa through a combination of larger aircraft and better load factors.

With all the variables currently out there (air passenger duty, the cost of fuel, the recession, the government's lack of an aviation policy and a sense of being lukewarm to the industry are just a few) it's impossible for anyone to accurately forecast what BRS will be doing in ten or twenty years time.

The Dft published passenger forecasts last year for all UK airports at various dates until 2050, but wasn't that a just a waste of public money which is likely to be no closer to what turns out to be reality than drawing numbers from a hat?

The BRS experience suggests that's probably the case.
MerchantVenturer is offline  
Old 1st Jun 2012, 20:50
  #1987 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: London, UK & Europe
Posts: 2
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
brussels airlines are increasing capacity on BRU route by almost 60% from start of winter.
j636 is offline  
Old 2nd Jun 2012, 11:55
  #1988 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: TORQUAY
Posts: 9
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
what aircraft do brussels airline operate into BRS and what aircraft will they be uplifting to in order to uplift capacity on the route
petey156 is offline  
Old 2nd Jun 2012, 17:05
  #1989 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Bristol
Posts: 2
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
If you try to book a November flight on their web-site the aircraft is described as a RJ 85.
Accurate is offline  
Old 2nd Jun 2012, 19:46
  #1990 (permalink)  

Brunel to Concorde
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Virtute et Industria, et Sumorsaete Ealle
Posts: 2,283
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Brussels Airlines BRS-BRU

Since January 2010 BRS-BRU has been operated for Brussels Airlines by bmiRegional using ERJ 145 aircraft at 3 x daily, fewer at weekends.

Prior to that Brussels Airlines and its predecessors operated the route using their own equipment (ARJs and 146s for many years), at one time up to 4 x daily.

At the time that bmiRegional took on the route for Brussels Airlines the latter had been using their own ARJ 85s at 2 x daily.

So the 3 x daily ERJ 145s provided approximately the same number of seats as the 2 x daily ARJs but with greater frequency.

In 2010 passenger numbers were up 23% to 38,334 and in 2011 up 11% to 42,659. In the first four months of 2012 passenger numbers are up again - by nearly 8%.

Following the recent news re bmiRegional, Brussels Airlines are advertising the route from the end of October with ARJ 85s at 3 x daily, again with fewer at weekends.

It seems they are encouraged by the increased passenger numbers the ERJs have brought with the additional rotations. It remains to be seen if the route can again justify 3 x daily ARJs.

Incidentally the NCL-BRU route was also switched to bmiRegional 145s in January 2010 and, like the BRS route, NCL-BRU will use ARJ 85s from the end of October.

Last edited by MerchantVenturer; 2nd Jun 2012 at 19:57. Reason: Typo
MerchantVenturer is offline  
Old 2nd Jun 2012, 22:33
  #1991 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Solihull
Age: 60
Posts: 3,326
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Brussels Airlines

Hi MV

Those are impressive figures in respect of % increases but I would throw caution on the RJ85 source.

It is from Routesonline/airlineroute.net and they just scour GDS on a daily basis, which of course is a live system and should be accurate (at that point of time and I too quote it for BHX services).

However on the BMIR thread it claims that they have been asked to tender again and the RJ85 fleet at Brussels Airlines is shrinking by the week. I think they have five left per one source and one of those has not flown since 19/05/12, another every other day but the remainder are worked hard. Of course there is still a significant fleet of 97 seat RJ100's though.

In GDS BHX has 2 x RJ85's and 3 x RJ100's in winter and I can't believe for one minute that will happen with the current frequency of 3 x Q400 (flybe and Tyrolean) and 2 x RJ100's unless the Q400 contact ends for some reason.

There have also been rumours of flybe providing more Q400's for SN although the BMI Baby situation might affect this as they are now tight on aircraft (EMA - AMS & CDG still not on sale) and BHX is now seeing almost daily cancellations (weekdays).



Pete

Last edited by OltonPete; 2nd Jun 2012 at 22:35. Reason: spelling
OltonPete is offline  
Old 2nd Jun 2012, 22:48
  #1992 (permalink)  
tpm
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Bristol
Posts: 10
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
I really do wonder if the switch in aircraft is due to increased demand or simply because that's the smallest plane Brussels Airlines have available. I've been flying this route a lot in the last 3 months, usually out Monday mornings and back Friday evenings, and the loads seem quite good in general, at least at those times, but I've also had occasions (e.g. a bank holiday monday) where there were only a handful of people (all in business class, because b.light or b.flex was simply not bookable.. not sure if that was a glitch in the booking system or some sort of yield management).

MV: interesting numbers (re. "BRS - where from here?"). I've always wondered about where all those extra passengers mentioned in the expansion master plan are going to come from. Do you happen to know in which areas the airport expects (or expected) that growth to happen? LCCs? People flying into the sun twice as many times a year? More people flying into the sun? More business travellers? More connections to US/Middle East/Turkish hubs? People simply travelling more in general?

I was particularly surprised to see that "leakage" to Heathrow from the South West was only around 7% (IIRC), plus a few more to Gatwick and Luton/Stansted. So how much is that in total? Perhaps 5-6mppa? Most of those are surely international flights and short-haul business travel where going via AMS/CDG/BRU is not practical, so how much of that could Bristol realistically capture back, even with some more routes? Perhaps 1-2mmpa? Or perhaps the business community in the area is expected to grow considerably in the next 10 years?

So I find it hard to see where massive growth at the airport is supposed to come from, esp. with decent transport links (direct rail link; link to M5) not even on the agenda.
tpm is offline  
Old 3rd Jun 2012, 13:37
  #1993 (permalink)  

Brunel to Concorde
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Virtute et Industria, et Sumorsaete Ealle
Posts: 2,283
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
BRS-BRU

Hello Pete and tpm,

I also wondered about the RJ85 being the type to be used from the end of the summer timetable. At present it is the smallest of Brussels Airlines' own fleet but according to Wiki (not always the definitive voice in any subject of course) the type is to be phased out of the airline by the end of this year.

Whether the RJ85 phasing out (assuming it's true) will be delayed if there is difficulty in sourcing other, perhaps more suitably-sized, aircraft remains to be seen.

BRS - where from here?

tpm,

Forgive me if you are already aware of much of the following but for completeness I've set it out thus.

The BRS master plan forecast

The master plan was the result of the then Labour government's 2003 white paper, 'The Future of Air Transport'.

The UK demand for air travel was expected to increase from the 2003 total of around 200 million passengers to between 400 million and 600 million by 2030. BRS, like other airports whose master plans evolved from the 2003 white paper, proceeded on the basis that they would share in the increase.

In BRS's case the belief was well founded given that its passenger numbers had enjoyed an average annual growth rate of nearly 14% over the ten years up to 2003 against the UK average of just under 6%.

The master plan envisaged much slower future annual growth rate towards its 2015 and 2030 target figures. In absolute terms passenger numbers had grown nearly four-fold in the decade up to 2003 and 2005-2015 would need only a 60% rise to meet the target.

In 2004/5 (when the master plan was being prepared) it was believed that increased air travel would be boosted by rising standards of living, rising GDP, people choosing to fly more often and more frequently from their local airports as more services became viable, with the hope that local business travel in particular would benefit.

BRS's master plan forecast put the bulk of the actual increase (as opposed to percentage increases in different sectors) down to increased short haul international scheduled passenger numbers which realistically means mainly the low-cost airlines. For example, this sector was forecast to increase from 2.5 million passengers in 2005 to 4.25 million in 2015. There was also forecast to be 450,000 more domestic route passengers and an additional 294,000 charter passengers during this period. Optimistically, as it's turned out, the airport also factored in 383,000 long haul scheduled passengers in 2015.

The charter market has decreased rather than increased which puts even more weight on the shoulders of scheduled carriers (mainly low-cost at BRS) to drive the airport forward. But BRS is not unique in this - far from it.

It seems the passenger number increase would be obtained through a mixture of new routes, higher frequencies and more people travelling.

Few people could have forecast the state the world's economy would get itself into during the years following 2005.

The BRS management has recognised that its master plan predictions won't follow the forecast timetable and continues with its policy to expand infrastructure, including an eventual doubling of the terminal size, incrementally as passenger numbers build. A contract has already been signed for the first part of the terminal expansion though I've not seen any timescale.

Leakage to London

The 2008 CAA survey showed that 6.7% of LHR's terminal passengers had an origin or destination in the South West, over twice as many as any other region of the UK apart from the South East. Broadly similar figures applied to Gatwick.

As you point out, this is around 5 million journeys and many could never be replicated from a South West airport, but some could certainly be captured.

Surface access

It's a constant complaint that BRS is difficult to reach and one wonders how it would fare if access was much easier. That said, it's done as well as most regional airports during the recession and far better than many others, including its neighbouring airports in the South West and South Wales.

I have no doubt that the Airport Flyer service - now running at 10-minute frequencies in each direction between city and airport from early morning to mid evening with lesser frequency in the late evening but with increased journeys through the night (compared to what went before) - has done much to overcome the lack of a rail connection.

With through ticketing availability via Temple Meads from across much of the UK rail network - the airport is listed as a 'station' in the First Great Western booking system and also appears on the railway station train arrivals board - and with National Express via the Bristol coach and country bus station, the Flyer service seems to gain in popularity every year handling about 10% of the passengers who fly in and out of the airport.

It's run by the airport though operated by First Bristol drivers and vehicles in a dedicated livery.

On Friday afternoon I saw several of the 37-seat Volvo Flyers pass through Bedminster in both directions very heavily loaded with standing passengers on some. Loads do vary enormously depending on the peaks and troughs of air travel but the great thing is that passengers always know a Flyer will be waiting or along very shortly. Such a frequent schedule could never be accomplished by a rail link which would be a spur or branch anyway (if anyone could find the money for the extensive civil engineering that would be needed to climb to the airport).

Greater Bristol is embarking on a £250 million upgrade of its passenger transport network including new roads, part funded by the DfT, which involves five new schemes at least two of which ought to ease access to the airport. One should remove the crawl around Ashton and Bedminster by traffic heading for the airport via the M5 at Avonmouth and the other may afford a new route for the Flyer partly on a guided busway.

Summary

Growth at BRS may remain slow for a while but when confidence returns to the economy it, like other regional airports, will see the benefit and in BRS's case the growth will become more substantial. Trouble is, no-one knows when this will be.

To reach 10 mppa (the current permitted maximum under planning permissions) an increase of around 65-70% will be needed from the present total. Compared with the 600% growth of the past 20 years perhaps this is not so daunting as it might seem.........but that economy must get its act going first.
MerchantVenturer is offline  
Old 5th Jun 2012, 10:55
  #1994 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Bristol
Posts: 102
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Emirates Says

"In the U.K., where Emirates serves London Heathrow, Birmingham, Manchester, Newcastle upon Tyne and Glasgow, there’s the possibility of it adding a further destination which “could be north of the border or further west,” he said."

Ignoring the runway issue, I think one would assume they are talking about BRS. However, given the short runway, BRS cannot handle any of EK's fleet (fully laden) without a stopover being needed (Even the A330s [ which I think they are looking to phase out anyway] on 27 with the wind blowing just right on a cold day).

Surely that only leaves Cardiff in the running? Could EK really still be looking at operations from there? I can't think where else 'west' could support services... LPL is too close to MAN, BFS seems like the only other possibility.

I expect BRS might just about be able to handle an A-330 (It's not an awful lot larger than the 767-300 ER's that frequent the airport and the 330 has excellent performance) if some cargo was forgone - (But I understand this is where the money is) as I would imagine EK would get good loads out of BRS in a mixed J/Y A/C... Perhaps the airport will offer EK good terms in order to make this 'flagship' route/ carrier viable for EK?

Last edited by santito; 5th Jun 2012 at 12:54.
santito is offline  
Old 5th Jun 2012, 13:20
  #1995 (permalink)  

Brunel to Concorde
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Virtute et Industria, et Sumorsaete Ealle
Posts: 2,283
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Being discussed in the Emirates thread, though this is not a new report (March) and was debated at the time on aviation message baords including, I think on PPRuNe, though I can find no trace following just a brief search.

In my view BRS (or CWL) is unlikely given the proximity of BHX and LHR, and LGW is also an option at least for those in the West Country.

I believe that operational constraints at the airport would rule out BRS from a non-stop route.
MerchantVenturer is offline  
Old 8th Jun 2012, 16:39
  #1996 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Solihull
Age: 60
Posts: 3,326
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Brussels Airlines

brussels airlines Modifies Newcastle / Bristol W12 Operations | Airline Route

Bristol night-stop flybe Q400 for winter 2012-13 (decent increase in seats)

0620 1000
1030 1545
1615 2115

No surprise here, whether this is an expansion of the agreement with flybe
or just the BHX moving I don't know. The BHX service is showing as SN RJ's
but another one would be required as Newcastle is changing to the flybe Q400 as well.

However again I throw caution due to the source quoted

Pete
OltonPete is offline  
Old 8th Jun 2012, 16:51
  #1997 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Bowerhill
Posts: 71
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Brussels Airlines

However again I throw caution due to the source quoted
Pete,

Looked at Brussels Airlines booking engine, it shows both Bristol and Newcastle being operated by flyBE Dash 8's!

Last edited by andrew1968; 8th Jun 2012 at 16:53.
andrew1968 is offline  
Old 13th Jun 2012, 21:05
  #1998 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Bristol
Posts: 433
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
SN switched the wet lease contract to BE, so it's bye-bye to the pocket rocket, and hello to the Dash. I SAID, ITS... HELLO... TO... THE... DASH... YES, A BIT NOISY, ISN'T IT?

People with more fingers and toes than I have worked out that half the BD-R fleet of Emby's is now unaccounted for come W2012. Either there's a cunning plan or a momumental cockup.

Related - any news of us getting some flights into hubs other than Skyteam?
Bristol_Traveller is offline  
Old 13th Jun 2012, 23:13
  #1999 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Bristol
Posts: 102
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Would also like to know....

I eagerly await the return of LH or an airline like TK to pop up at BRS
santito is offline  
Old 22nd Jun 2012, 18:46
  #2000 (permalink)  

Brunel to Concorde
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Virtute et Industria, et Sumorsaete Ealle
Posts: 2,283
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Airport expansion

Justine Greening, Secretary of State for Transport, officially opened the first phase of BRS's major development that will eventually enable the airport to handle 10 mppa in a ceremony to mark the completion of three new aircraft stands.

More than 30 projects will be involved in the development including the near doubling of the terminal size, a public transport interchange, additional aircraft stands and an on-site hotel.

Currently work is proceeding on an additional immigration facility that will open this summer and on an expanded security search area.

The airport is also making 'substantial contributions' to two major transport schemes that will improve surface access to the airport.

Transport Secretary opens Bristol Airport development – Bristol Airport

Planning and development – Bristol Airport

Alitalia

Can anyone confirm that Alitalia will be operating weekly flights to BRS on Wednesdays from Rome Fiumicino commencing 4 July for 5-6 weeks?

It seems the flights may involve inbound tourism, possibly in some way connected with the Olympics which I realise don't start until the latter part of July.

easyJet already operates a daily rotation to Fiumicino.
MerchantVenturer is offline  


Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.


All times are GMT. The time now is 07:05.


Copyright © MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.