Open Skies
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Open Skies tomorrow?
The EU and US sides will meet tomorrow to discuss the position re Open Skies; despite the dropping of rules on ownership (which, frankly, only affected a very small number of countries), the Americans are of the view that the deal should go ahead as is. If the Europeans reject this, the question will be: to what end? Ownership concessions are clearly off the table (and the Americans aren't going to be having anything to do with these proposals on aircraft emissions), so the Europeans have a choice: there's a deal on the table. Take it or leave it - and, if they do leave it, that might well be it for a good few years to come.
The big sticking point will be LHR and it will be interesting to see how BA and the UK govt respond. Even if the UK objects, there will be qualified majority voting, so the UK won't be able to veto it. Ownership of US carriers is only relevant and of interest to a very small number of EU carriers - certainly not Aer Lingus and many of the smaller ones. Even those that might have an inkling in that direction will see that it's really not worth their while to object.
If they do, what happens then? Well, theoretically, negotiations will have failed and it will be up to each country to negotiate its own deal. I am hopeful that this goes ahead; I think it's a case of "now or never"; waiting two or four or six years really isn't going to make a huge lot of difference. If the UK has a beef over access to LHR, then they can work it out with the US.
Fingers crossed!
http://www.rte.ie/business/2007/0109/openskies.html
The big sticking point will be LHR and it will be interesting to see how BA and the UK govt respond. Even if the UK objects, there will be qualified majority voting, so the UK won't be able to veto it. Ownership of US carriers is only relevant and of interest to a very small number of EU carriers - certainly not Aer Lingus and many of the smaller ones. Even those that might have an inkling in that direction will see that it's really not worth their while to object.
If they do, what happens then? Well, theoretically, negotiations will have failed and it will be up to each country to negotiate its own deal. I am hopeful that this goes ahead; I think it's a case of "now or never"; waiting two or four or six years really isn't going to make a huge lot of difference. If the UK has a beef over access to LHR, then they can work it out with the US.
Fingers crossed!
http://www.rte.ie/business/2007/0109/openskies.html
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Possibility of state-to-state deals
It looks like the Americans will not entertain individual agreements, according to today's Irish Times:
US wants EU-wide flight deal
The US has currently ruled out any bilateral deal with Ireland on opening up the
aviation sector, seen as a key driver of growth for Aer Lingus.
The US department of transport said yesterday that Washington would pursue a
"comprehensive agreement" with the whole of the EU, rather than seek bilateral
agreements that are open to legal challenge in EU courts.
US wants EU-wide flight deal
The US has currently ruled out any bilateral deal with Ireland on opening up the
aviation sector, seen as a key driver of growth for Aer Lingus.
The US department of transport said yesterday that Washington would pursue a
"comprehensive agreement" with the whole of the EU, rather than seek bilateral
agreements that are open to legal challenge in EU courts.
Last edited by gaelgeoir; 10th Jan 2007 at 12:04. Reason: spelling
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I'm not quite so "confident" that it is a non-runner. After all, what does the EU have to gain from pulling back now. OK, there is the LHR issue, but is the UK on its own, strong enough to stop a deal on this basis? I don't think so. I don't see how any of the member states have anything to gain by obstructing a deal now and ultimately, although the Commission is doing the negotiating, the EU Transport ministers have to agree the deal.
That said, it wouldn't surprise me if the deal failed; it's just that I don't see anything to be gained.
As for Ireland, my understanding is that the US has ruled out any individual member state going for an open skies deal before everyone does, BUT what Ireland is seeking is not open skies, just the right to obtain greater US access and to move beyond the current Shannon stopover silliness; given that US airlines don't like this either, here again I don't see anything to be gained by the Americans holding back - especially with EI soon to choose between 787s and A350s ...
That said, it wouldn't surprise me if the deal failed; it's just that I don't see anything to be gained.
As for Ireland, my understanding is that the US has ruled out any individual member state going for an open skies deal before everyone does, BUT what Ireland is seeking is not open skies, just the right to obtain greater US access and to move beyond the current Shannon stopover silliness; given that US airlines don't like this either, here again I don't see anything to be gained by the Americans holding back - especially with EI soon to choose between 787s and A350s ...
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No progress in Brussels
Holding of breath not recommended, according to latest from ATI website:
"European Commission (EC) and US DOT officials will meet early next month for more talks aimed at finding a way to kick-start stalled open skies negotiations between the two sides."
"European Commission (EC) and US DOT officials will meet early next month for more talks aimed at finding a way to kick-start stalled open skies negotiations between the two sides."
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This report is a little more upbeat:
http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/?jp=CWSNMHAUAUKF
I would imagine it's a case of going back to the various EU member states to report on the position and to obtain some direction. If the EU member states are happy with the EU proposals, then it should be possible to reach an agreement by next month. One can't be VERY optimistic, given recent developments, but again, I ask: what's to be achieved by holding out when there is realistically not a lot to hold out for.
http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/?jp=CWSNMHAUAUKF
I would imagine it's a case of going back to the various EU member states to report on the position and to obtain some direction. If the EU member states are happy with the EU proposals, then it should be possible to reach an agreement by next month. One can't be VERY optimistic, given recent developments, but again, I ask: what's to be achieved by holding out when there is realistically not a lot to hold out for.
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Canada talks to provide impetus?
According to this week's FI, talks between the US and Canada are expected to provide an impetus to kick-start talks with the US.
http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...pen+skies.html
Canada expects t/a traffic to almost double by 2011 if an Open Skies deal is done; there is certainly considerable potential to grow, when you consider the likes of Zoom, which could benefit immensely, and also some very antiquated bilaterals, like those with Ireland, could be swept away.
The one thing that confuses me about this article is that the EU is unlikely to ask for anything silly from the Canadians, i.e. the right to buy into Canadian airlines or indeed, cabotage on Canadian domestic routes, so it seems that all the EU is doing is learning from its experience with the US and if it can bring the same conditions to bear with the US, then all the better. As far as I can see, the deal EU SHOULD want is already on the table.
http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...pen+skies.html
Canada expects t/a traffic to almost double by 2011 if an Open Skies deal is done; there is certainly considerable potential to grow, when you consider the likes of Zoom, which could benefit immensely, and also some very antiquated bilaterals, like those with Ireland, could be swept away.
The one thing that confuses me about this article is that the EU is unlikely to ask for anything silly from the Canadians, i.e. the right to buy into Canadian airlines or indeed, cabotage on Canadian domestic routes, so it seems that all the EU is doing is learning from its experience with the US and if it can bring the same conditions to bear with the US, then all the better. As far as I can see, the deal EU SHOULD want is already on the table.
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What part of "No" doesn't the EU Commission understand?
Have a look at the following, particularly the last section:
http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/...NSA-CEO-DC.XML
I can't help wondering, what part of "get stuffed" does Barrot not understand? The Americans have said, in no uncertain terms, that there will be no movement on foreign ownership of US carriers; to continue seeking something that is clearly and unequivocably off the table is simply irresponsible and a waste of everyone's time. What the EU should be seeking - the right of any EU airline to fly from any point in the EU to any point in the US is now on the table. Why delay it - and everyone else - by refusing what is really the best deal they can get.
Of course, the consequences for Ireland (as well as many other countries) need to be considered. What they thought the EU would be arguing for when it was given the mandate to negotiate on behalf of all member states is being spurned and for something which IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN? How thick does the EU have to be to get this? Stop wasting everyone's time and do the deal that's on the table and if they're not going to do that, let individual member states do their own deals.
From Ireland's perspective, all we want is the right to increase US access - which poses a competitive threat to no one. If the EU continues to obstruct this, while seeking a deal which it has already been told in no uncertain terms is not going to happen, then the govt should have the right to act on its own. And if the Commission seeks to take legal action, let it. It would be interesting what legal grounds they could seek to find for such a spurious move.
http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/...NSA-CEO-DC.XML
I can't help wondering, what part of "get stuffed" does Barrot not understand? The Americans have said, in no uncertain terms, that there will be no movement on foreign ownership of US carriers; to continue seeking something that is clearly and unequivocably off the table is simply irresponsible and a waste of everyone's time. What the EU should be seeking - the right of any EU airline to fly from any point in the EU to any point in the US is now on the table. Why delay it - and everyone else - by refusing what is really the best deal they can get.
Of course, the consequences for Ireland (as well as many other countries) need to be considered. What they thought the EU would be arguing for when it was given the mandate to negotiate on behalf of all member states is being spurned and for something which IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN? How thick does the EU have to be to get this? Stop wasting everyone's time and do the deal that's on the table and if they're not going to do that, let individual member states do their own deals.
From Ireland's perspective, all we want is the right to increase US access - which poses a competitive threat to no one. If the EU continues to obstruct this, while seeking a deal which it has already been told in no uncertain terms is not going to happen, then the govt should have the right to act on its own. And if the Commission seeks to take legal action, let it. It would be interesting what legal grounds they could seek to find for such a spurious move.
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Positive vibes!
The new round of talks between the EU and US on Open Skies began today in Washington. The vibes I've been getting from various sources suggest that the Germans (who, as EU presidency holders, have significant influence as drivers of the EU agenda) are anxious to do a deal. Indeed, significantly, it appears that there is a certain amount of acrimony between the Germans and the UK, which wants a quid quo pro over the issue of LHR access.
However, the UK is now in a minority and if this remains the case, it will not be sufficient to stop the O/S deal going ahead. The EU now has what it wants on the table, so it would seem very foolish to frustrate it; there was talk of a tit-for-tat response from the EU over the removal of the "ownership/ management of US airlines" issue, but hopefully that can be resisted.
The EU might not get all it wanted (particularly as far as LHR is concerned), but in this case a less than perfect deal is far better than none at all. At the end of the day, holding out for a better deal that's unlikely to happen, is just wasting everyone's time.
No doubt tomorrow's newspapers will have more.
However, the UK is now in a minority and if this remains the case, it will not be sufficient to stop the O/S deal going ahead. The EU now has what it wants on the table, so it would seem very foolish to frustrate it; there was talk of a tit-for-tat response from the EU over the removal of the "ownership/ management of US airlines" issue, but hopefully that can be resisted.
The EU might not get all it wanted (particularly as far as LHR is concerned), but in this case a less than perfect deal is far better than none at all. At the end of the day, holding out for a better deal that's unlikely to happen, is just wasting everyone's time.
No doubt tomorrow's newspapers will have more.
Too mean to buy a long personal title
But what if any deal that's realistically on offer is less good than the current situation? My sense is that that is how at least some of the parties see it. If they're right, there may be value in maintaining the status quo.
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Mixed messages
There seems to be mixed messages coming out; on the one hand, the Germans are said to be anxious to do a deal and on the other, Barrot said in Washington today that it was imperative that the Americans give ground on the ownership issue, which is unlikely to happen, so we're in a stalemate. I don't see that as a healthy position to be in.
In principle, I don't mind them holding back for a better deal, but from an Irish perspective, this means that we're held to an arrangement which is the least competitive of any EU state - but the EU refuses point blank to allow us to change it, so realistically, if the EU insists on holding this line, the only option for Ireland is to opt out of the process altogether and do its own deal with the US. If the Commission objects, then so be it; the Irish govt can counter-sue on competition grounds. However, the EU must be made very aware that it cannot lead negotiations into a stalemate, which may last for years and then tell a member state that this issue - which has nothing to do with it - is going to mean it will be stuck indefinitely with an extremely anti-competitive and restrictive US access policy.
In principle, I don't mind them holding back for a better deal, but from an Irish perspective, this means that we're held to an arrangement which is the least competitive of any EU state - but the EU refuses point blank to allow us to change it, so realistically, if the EU insists on holding this line, the only option for Ireland is to opt out of the process altogether and do its own deal with the US. If the Commission objects, then so be it; the Irish govt can counter-sue on competition grounds. However, the EU must be made very aware that it cannot lead negotiations into a stalemate, which may last for years and then tell a member state that this issue - which has nothing to do with it - is going to mean it will be stuck indefinitely with an extremely anti-competitive and restrictive US access policy.
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EU/US talks rescheduled for 26th February
The latest round of EU/US talks has broken up and will recommence in Brussels in two weeks' time. This suggests that some progress has been made; the Commission will probably go back to the member states and brief on progress to date.
Here's the media report:
http://www.abcmoney.co.uk/news/11200721635.htm
Although it's disappointing that a deal wasn't done, I think that based on what Barrot was saying earlier in the week, I would not have been surprised to see the talks collapse entirely. There is no firm info on what was discussed nor how far the talks went, but I'm assuming that for the talks to have advanced at all, the Europeans would have had to take the demand for changes in US airline ownership off the table. The media report suggests that the talks ended without acrimony and that they are to resume after consultations.
Here's the media report:
http://www.abcmoney.co.uk/news/11200721635.htm
Although it's disappointing that a deal wasn't done, I think that based on what Barrot was saying earlier in the week, I would not have been surprised to see the talks collapse entirely. There is no firm info on what was discussed nor how far the talks went, but I'm assuming that for the talks to have advanced at all, the Europeans would have had to take the demand for changes in US airline ownership off the table. The media report suggests that the talks ended without acrimony and that they are to resume after consultations.
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The Irish minister for Transport, Martin Cullen, has said that he will look at opening direct talks with the US if talks between the EU and US on Open Skies, scheduled to restart in Brussels on Monday, fail to achieve progress.
http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,2016788,00.html
http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,2016788,00.html
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Fries with that?
The EU and US sides are meeting from today in Brussels, to work out a deal on Open Skies, amid fears that if this week's talks fail, that could be "it" until the end of the current US administration.
The sticking point, much as expected, is that the Europeans want changes to the mgmt and control of US carriers; the US is resolute in saying "no" and in any case, even if the US DOT did want to give concessions, it would be blocked by congress.
The EU's latest plan is a "franchise" type operation, "like Burger King" (according to an EU official), whereby the EU carriers could open a US airline with their name, but managed and owned by Americans. The US hasn't said anything, but I can't see it being of much interest to EU airlines either; much more convenient surely to have a codeshare.
It now looks very likely that this week's talks will fail, although it remains to be seen whether any compromise will be offered by either side ...
The sticking point, much as expected, is that the Europeans want changes to the mgmt and control of US carriers; the US is resolute in saying "no" and in any case, even if the US DOT did want to give concessions, it would be blocked by congress.
The EU's latest plan is a "franchise" type operation, "like Burger King" (according to an EU official), whereby the EU carriers could open a US airline with their name, but managed and owned by Americans. The US hasn't said anything, but I can't see it being of much interest to EU airlines either; much more convenient surely to have a codeshare.
It now looks very likely that this week's talks will fail, although it remains to be seen whether any compromise will be offered by either side ...
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Open skies
Surely open skies should be about opening up routes and not about ownership which is an entirely separate issue. Minister Cullen should move straight towards implementing the transitional agreement if the talks fail. Any more dithering could be extremely damaging for Aerlingus.
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Progress made, deal on the table!
Within the past half hour, Commissioner Barrot is reported as saying that significant and decisive progress has been made in EU/US air talks, which will allow him to put a firm proposal before EU Transport Ministers on the 22nd March. No firm details as to what is involved, but the fact that such progress has been made is obviously good news.
More when further details emerge ....
More when further details emerge ....