Growth in UK traffic?
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Growth in UK traffic?
There are estimates for traffic growth in aviation that I find hard to believe.
For example Glasgow (my local airport) WILL see 30m pax by 2030. Current is 9m.
Investment is being programmed to meet this anticipated demand.
Apart from the obvious question of where are they going to fit 'upstairs', has anyone got any comments on the likely veracity of these forecasts?
For example Glasgow (my local airport) WILL see 30m pax by 2030. Current is 9m.
Investment is being programmed to meet this anticipated demand.
Apart from the obvious question of where are they going to fit 'upstairs', has anyone got any comments on the likely veracity of these forecasts?
Paxing All Over The World
As I understand it, much of the 'growth' is a projection that the remarkable growth in short/medium haul by LCCs in the past decade will be repeated in long haul.
As I understand it, there is only the smallest of possibilities of this happening. All LCCs have looked at and turned away from the long haul option. Some specialists do it but not the LCCs. One change that we do see is the way the charter companies are moving into schedules and expanding their biz - but that is slow and organic, not rapid and (to follow the metaphor) 'GM' driven!
As I understand it, there is only the smallest of possibilities of this happening. All LCCs have looked at and turned away from the long haul option. Some specialists do it but not the LCCs. One change that we do see is the way the charter companies are moving into schedules and expanding their biz - but that is slow and organic, not rapid and (to follow the metaphor) 'GM' driven!
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And I would add, the forecasts assume lower oil prices than are now the norm, and no additional taxation or other costs which might constrain demand growth (e.g. emissions trading). I tend to think of them as very optimistic "maximum" scenarios which IMHO will not be met in practice.
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I agree that these forecasts are hopelessly optomistic. Sure there has been the arrival of the lo-cos and sharp growth during the years they emerged in, but to project these growth rates forward and propogate as fact the tripling of pax flying by 2030 is laughable.
The unfunny bit is that these projections are being used to justify spending huge sums of public money on infrastructure likely to go severely underutilised.
The unfunny bit is that these projections are being used to justify spending huge sums of public money on infrastructure likely to go severely underutilised.
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Why on earth are you all so pesimistic? The demand for air travel is a factor of overall economic growth. If the economy goes on growing so will demand for air travel grow. Historically air travel demand has grown at twice the rate of GDP growth. GDP, growth of 2.5-3.0% (typical of the last few years) will double air traffic demand every ten years. So all the forecasters are doing is extrapolate current trends. In addition every penny spent on UK airports has proved to be a wise investment. Investment in airports is as vital to a modern economy as wet ports were to Victorian investors.
The real issue facing us all is not the scale of investment needed but the mindless idiocy of the politicians who want to tax the life out of every successful industry. Aviation is a brilliant industry for Britain. Let us try and keep it away from these manic people who want to tax the life out of us. So let us have some very positive votes for all the investment needed. You will all have a much secure future if that investment goes ahead.
The real issue facing us all is not the scale of investment needed but the mindless idiocy of the politicians who want to tax the life out of every successful industry. Aviation is a brilliant industry for Britain. Let us try and keep it away from these manic people who want to tax the life out of us. So let us have some very positive votes for all the investment needed. You will all have a much secure future if that investment goes ahead.
