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Ryanair - 3

Old 5th Oct 2006, 10:13
  #81 (permalink)  
 
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Short haul will become all FR, keep the Aer Lingus brand for a big push on long haul! Be affraid!
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Old 5th Oct 2006, 10:45
  #82 (permalink)  
 
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Short haul will become all FR, keep the Aer Lingus brand for a big push on long haul! Be affraid!
-8AS, I think you're spot-on.

Yer man MOL may be a g*t, but when it comes to 'wheelin an dealin' he is a genius!!! No other airline would touch EIN with a bargepole, but RYR get the Irish market locked up, they get a nice integrated fleet of A320s and A330s (get a good battle going with Boeing and Airbus re future orders), AND possibly the biggest prize, they could have a go at a low-cost model into the USA.

Cross-subsidise the longhauls from the RYR revenue, pack all the punters on by flying them from all those lovely existing UK routes into DUB and then onward, and away you go! And not forgetting the LHR slots either - must be worth tens of millions alone.

And if EIN pilots, crew etc, threaten to leave - well, that's what he wants anyway. Easily replaced - and there must be RYR crew who would give their eye-teeth to 'trade up' to longhaul A330 ops.

I like to think I follow the airline biz, and I am seriously hacked off that I didn't see this coming. The question is, how come no-one else did either??!!
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Old 5th Oct 2006, 11:02
  #83 (permalink)  
 
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Bloody hell, did anyone see this coming? I'm really quite stunned by this predatory move from MOL!
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Old 5th Oct 2006, 11:11
  #84 (permalink)  
 
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Bit of a stunt methinks, at least I think that's how it's pronounced......
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Old 5th Oct 2006, 11:11
  #85 (permalink)  
 
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.... and it would remove any threat to transfer oversight/regulation to the CAA
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Old 5th Oct 2006, 11:11
  #86 (permalink)  
 
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So, between them, the govt and emoloyees hold about 43% (?) and assuming the employees will want to hold onto their shares - by no means guaranteed, the objective will be to find another buyer for about 10-15% of shares, to bring the combined s/h above 50%.

But, what airline - even EK - would do this? The problem is that MO'L holds most of the cards here, even if the govt does find a way of keeping him out. What's to say he won't basically act in a fit of pique, base another 10+ 738s at DUB, set up a long haul airline and basically grind EI down until the govt agrees to a deal; he will be pretty ruthless here.
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Old 5th Oct 2006, 11:16
  #87 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Shanwickman View Post
He may have said that he would not take EI if given it as a present but anybody that might be interested in buying something is not going to talk up its value!

Yes, I agree completely.

However, surely we can draw a distinction between business prudence and outright lying.

Or does the modern low cost ethos leave no room for moral principles?
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Old 5th Oct 2006, 11:19
  #88 (permalink)  
 
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Just reading BBC news and it states that Irish Govt which retains 25% stake is unwilling to sell at all, Aer Lingus mgmt is considering the sale and Ryanair have alledgedly issued a statement saying it has no problem with the Irish Govt remaining as minority stakeholder. If you scratch beneath the surface Ryanair have been very clever. They guessed that the Govt was unwilling to sell to them as it wants to promote aviation competition in Ireland so its waited until the Irish govt has floated a majority stake and then snapped up shares at the cheap IPO price and in the days after to build up a credible stake and then if it wins its takeover regardless of if the Irish govt retains 25% it will still be the majority shareholder and can control the airline (although am sure it would prefer full ownership).

As i said in previous post, an odd move given Ryanair's set up and all the wrangling thats gone on in the past between the two but i can actually see the benefits on thinking about it
1) Profitable Long Haul Routes
2) Ability to cut Irish/UK routes where both would operate to avoid overlap but at same time launch new routes using the Aer lingus aircraft which wouldnt be used on these routes anymore
3) A greater chunk of slots and presence at Irish Airports, esp Dub
4) A foothold into LHR - it could even sell some slots here for lucrative cash but its not as though Ryanair needs it

However as stated two things which could put a dampner are as stated competition authorities and a potential shareholder which doesnt seem to approve the offer.

I wonder if a Ryanair owned Aer Lingus would work well with BA ( a company it often slates) on the codeshare routes between UK and Ireland?
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Old 5th Oct 2006, 11:35
  #89 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by akerosid View Post
But, what airline - even EK - would do this? The problem is that MO'L holds most of the cards here, even if the govt does find a way of keeping him out. What's to say he won't basically act in a fit of pique, base another 10+ 738s at DUB, set up a long haul airline and basically grind EI down until the govt agrees to a deal; he will be pretty ruthless here.
Not even to mention the fact that even without getting long haul a/c, you are probably able to reach places like Boston with the 738, just probaly some days struggling to make the westbound sector but really something achieveable.
So putting even more pressure on the EI stakeholders to sell (including the govt).
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Old 5th Oct 2006, 11:37
  #90 (permalink)  
 
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He kept this one quiet didint he, no one had a clue even us ppruners when I first saw this I had to look at the date again to make sure it wasent the 1st of April
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Old 5th Oct 2006, 11:49
  #91 (permalink)  
Nemo Me Impune Lacessit
 
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There again, if he does actually get Aer Lingus he could keep the shorthaul, which is his proven forte, then sell the longhaul, such as it is, to Virgin.
I don't see Emirates getting much of a look in, maybe a shareholding but not control.
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Old 5th Oct 2006, 11:54
  #92 (permalink)  
 
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Heard from a friend who works in FR that they are asking for people to move to madrid for a new base opening 1st November havent seen anything on the Ryanair website yet
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Old 5th Oct 2006, 12:25
  #93 (permalink)  

Jolly Green Giant
 
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Well the employees will get EUR60,000 each if this happens so there'll
be sod all the Unions can do about it now!!!

Funny how union members beliefs and previous stances will all be
forgotten as they drive to work in the new BMW 5 Series!!
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Old 5th Oct 2006, 12:44
  #94 (permalink)  
 
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Wink Aer Lingus goes Boeing?

On the Ryanair website Ryanair has written out their intentions for Aer Lingus. One of them is:

- Give Aer Lingus access to the benefit of Ryanair's lower costs aircraft deliveries and lower cost financing facilities.

I suppose this is a direct connection to Boeing and I wonder what would happen then to the shorthaul Airbus fleet...
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Old 5th Oct 2006, 12:46
  #95 (permalink)  
 
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Quite wrong 1world 22. MOL has never made good on any of his promises, and this will be no different. Master of the sound bite, his figures never bear close scrutiny. Ei staff who could have sold their jobs for considerably more over the last few years have shown a level of comitement to the company and their shared future that you clearly dont compehend.
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Old 5th Oct 2006, 12:50
  #96 (permalink)  
 
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Aer Lingus won't exist at all if Ryanair get control. There will only be one company called Ryanair, with one type , the 737-800 and the routes thet inherit and the massive cash flow plus from the sale of the Heathrow slots. (Ryanair would NEVER fly from Heathrow and the slots are woth a mint)
Aer Lingus would cease to be in exactly the same manner as.....oh what were they called, oh yes, Buzz!

If the Irish want a national airline to be proud of, don't flog it to Ducksy. But then money talks louder than principle.
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Old 5th Oct 2006, 13:00
  #97 (permalink)  
 
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There is no benefit to Ryanair in operating 2 types of aircraft with 2 types of workforce on short and long haul.

The choices are to keep the 2 entirely separate or to eliminate Aer Lingus.

Is there any benefit to Ryanair in retaining the Aer Lingus brand which competes against it on it's own doorstep?

Solution?

Sell the LHR short haul slots; bmi, Virgin and the US carriers will fight it out for them.

Stop the transatlantic routes and return the 330s; return the short haul Airbus fleet and replace it with 737s.

If the pilots and cabin crews won't accept Ryanair T & C's close the whole lot down.

Result? All the Dublin slots passed to FR for expansion, no competition, IALPA left with no boll*cks and the IAA at gunpoint.
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Old 5th Oct 2006, 13:13
  #98 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Skipness One Echo View Post
Bit of a stunt methinks, at least I think that's how it's pronounced......
A rather cunning stunt, one might say...

IMHO a bit of a publicity stunt but RYA has a big cash balance and needs to either spend it or return it to shareholders - so they have to do something.

Let's assume it goes ahead...

Holding company created, owning both airlines. They'd be kept separate for industrial reasons. However RYA takes up most of EIN's routes it doesn't already operate, chucking the 320s in place of 738s (allowing maint & ops to be centralised on one type).

Beeb reports they only compete on a small number of routes so there'll be some cash-generation there.

Long-haul - it kind-of had to happen that longer routes would one day come into the lo-cos' radars as aircraft range performance increased. Really, what's the difference between operating 5 hr sectors to the far end of the Med, and tacking on a couple of hours to that and hopping the pond or to the sandpit? I suggest the cost problems start to escalate when you start throwing in two-sector trips.

So whilst it is a slight deviation from the one-type rule, having a small number of another type (when you've got over 200 of one type) probably isn't that big a deal; especially if you actually flog 'em to a lessor (so they're off the balance sheet) and effectively have them in your fleet on a fixed-cost ACMI basis. That is, the entire infrastructure is being run by someone else (at their risk) and you're just buying the capacity under a very tight SLA.

As for the unions... I suggest you lot take a look at the D&G RP forum from time to time and see what's being done with "the Qantas group". Those who have suggested that S/H routes would gradually go to the lo-co need only look at Jetstar.

Actually Jetstar are about to start L/H lo-co ops with A330s, two-class, pay for blankets, pillows, IFE and meals on single-hop trips. Same name but separate entity and AOC from the domestic JQ ops. Taking the Jetstar L/H idea back to Ireland, being able to operate long routes on a lower cost basis might well actually open up more routes - so more flying. But - on a 'lower cost' basis...

You can betcha that MOL is watching his compatriot in Australia (Alan Joyce, running Jetstar) like a hawk.
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Old 5th Oct 2006, 13:36
  #99 (permalink)  
shannon55
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Ryanair @ Madrid

Wow!Easyjet must be gutted! I bet they thought they'd have Madrid all to themselves bar the Ryanair DUB route!
 
Old 5th Oct 2006, 13:48
  #100 (permalink)  

Jolly Green Giant
 
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Really, what's the difference between operating 5 hr sectors to the far end of the Med, and tacking on a couple of hours to that and hopping the pond or to the sandpit?
Time zone differences for one I would think.

Fly into JFK leaving midday any you arrive at 14:00 local or thereabouts.

Flight then leaves at 18:00 at the earliest, that's a 4 hour turnaround.
Arrives at 05:00-06:00 local back in Ireland say and then has maybe 6 hours before it leaves again??

Not terribly attractive in the land of quick turnarounds...So that's about 11 hours flying in 24 hours? What would be the daily utilisation of FR aircraft currently?
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