BA withdraw from LHR - CGN

[ptr120]

BA have just announced that they are withdrawing from the LHR - CGN route, which is currently served by 3 flights a day with effect from 26 March 2006.

In recent months Germanwings have dropped the CGN - LGW service (2 per day if I remember) while Easyjet have reduced their twice daily service to one per day (summer flightplan still to be released).

Does anyone know if Easyjet are likely to increase their frequency on this route as result?

Are Lufthansa likely to shedule a bigger aircraft than the Canadair 200 or 700 currently used for this route?

Why are BA completely pulling the route? If load factor is the only reason, I would have thought that a reduction in frequency would be the logical first step?

I hope I don't end up having to use DUS instead!

[Flightrider]

LGW-Munich and LGW-Hannover also being pulled.

[Globaliser]

ptr120: Why are BA completely pulling the route? If load factor is the only reason, I would have thought that a reduction in frequency would be the logical first step?

Perhaps it's because of a complete change in the nature of the CGN market recently? BA now do 5 x per day to TXL, IIRC.

[ptr120]

Globaliser,

yes markets do change over time. CGN now has a direct fast rail link with the city. Direct flights to the USA are starting next year. Include the football world cup in Germany next year, and the numerous trade fairs that fill the city on a regular basis, it is easy to see why CGN is growing in terms of passanger numbers. I'm trying to understand: 1) why BA would rather dispose of an entry point in and out of what is still one of the most extensive route networks in the world, rather than simply reducing frequency. 2) is anyone likely to make up the reduction in capacity

[Cyrano]

Ptr120:

At a guess:
- LCC competition from EZY and Germanwings has reduced yields as well as captured a share of traffic;
- DUS is significantly higher yielding;
- as Globaliser has pointed out, the governmental/public-sector traffic has shifted to Berlin;
- the same fast ICE rail link that stops at CGN also means that Cologne-area pax can get to FRA easily to pick up direct flights rather than flying to LHR and connecting.

Hence I would assume that BA figure they can better use the "entry point to one of the most extensive route networks in the world" for service to some destination with more of a network benefit.

[Re-Heat]

Train stops at DUS airport and gets you to central Cologne (as opposed to the airport between Cologne and Bonn) in 20 minutes. Why bother flying to both of them?

ICE to Frankfurt is over an hour, but I'd bet that central Cologne to DUS on the train is little different in timing than getting to Cologne airport?

Who knows.

[Dragon777]

... plus I reckon that BA can deploy their LHR slots more profitably on long-haul routes.

[WHBM]

For price-sensitive traffic Brussels is not far away, and improved faster trains from Cologne to Brussels connect with Eurostar, giving an every-2-hours service from Cologne to London.

If you want to go by air from central Cologne to London it is probably quicker to get the train via DUS nowadays.

Much of CGN's high-yield traffic will have been government traffic to/from Bonn, who are now transferred to Berlin.

I've always found Cologne to be one of the secondary German cities. The real killer I think is proximity to DUS, and the LCC airports that have sprung up nearby.

[virginblue]

I've always found Cologne to be one of the secondary German cities.

Don't let this be heard in Cologne. After all, it is Germany's 4th largest city after Berlin, Hamburg and Munich (if you add Bonn, both together are bigger than Munich).

While I would support the feeling that DUS is somewhat nearby, Cologne certainly is no secondary market. Today, despite Easyjet and Germanwings, there is problably not more capacity on the route than 10 years ago when Lufthansa used bigger jets and there were flights to LGW or LCY by Cityflyer and Augsburg Airways.

[WHBM]

Well if we're going to start adding German cities together we can also add Dusseldorf, Essen, Duisburg, and the whole Ruhr together. Or Frankfurt, Mainz, Wiesbaden ........

Cologne and Dusseldorf strike me as a bit like Liverpool and Manchester. The proximity of the larger metropolitan area impacts on the viability of the smaller one much more than if it were a free-standing city.

[flyer55]

All due to profitability am affraid and think their is more to come

[Capt H Peacock]

It probably has a lot to do with the fact that Bonn (remember it's Cologne-Bonn airport) is no longer the Bundeskapital.

That makes Berlin much more important, and probably why Berlin's going to get Brandenberg International in the next few years.

Never mind. Think of it, you can have a big beer now, no more Kolsch.

[brakedwell]

I'm surprised BA have dropped LGW-MUC. I use this service three or four times a year and the flights are usually full. Yesterday, I received an email from BA promoting world cup flights from Bristol to Munich! I wonder how long that will last! If nobody else take up the LGW-MUC route and I have to use LHR, sod BA, I will travel Lufthansa.

[flyer55]

Dont blame you BA have shot themselves in the foot again ! Who ever made the decision to stop the two routes especially when the World Cup is playing in Germany mainly Munich!
Isnt easyjet planning expansion into Germanay?

[HZ123]

At present, granted it is not a good time, Easy are trying to give seats away for next to nothing. The World Cup lasts for about 3 weeks so I hardly think pulling out is a mistake. It makes sense with these routes that are now awash with seats with little or no financial return. BA will leave the rest od them to fight it out, using slots and a/c for better paying routes.

[Dash-7 lover]

The routes don't make money....simple.

[ptr120]

i flew this route on Friday evening and the load faactor was 100%!. many of you cite the relocation of the German government to Berlin. Do any of you know how many years ago that actually happened!

DUS is further than many of you seem to think, and far less convenient. as for the idea of Brussels being an alternative - please dont make me laugh! thatd make my weeklz commute really fun!

[brakedwell]

Dash-7 lover,
Considering BA's inflated cost base I suspect few if any European routes are profitable. BA dominates Gatwick, having swallowed up BCAL and Danair, who in turn had benefitted briefly from Air Europe's demise. BA is the largest slot holder at Gatwick. If it cuts back shorthaul services from Gatwick those slots should be transferred to a carrier who is prepared to take over the chopped routes. I only hope Easyjet or Ryanair pick up the defunct LGW-MUC route next year. (And no, I am NOT a football fan!)

[Globaliser]

ptr120: many of you cite the relocation of the German government to Berlin. Do any of you know how many years ago that actually happened!

Although I haven't been specifically watching the details, I expect that TXL frequencies got ramped up at the time to serve the new traffic. And that CGN has subsequently gone the common way of under-performing routes: Don't kill it straight away; let's see what we can do with (perhaps) smaller aircraft, (perhaps) fewer frequencies, (perhaps) more marketing effort; let's see if yields stabilise somewhere that we can keep running it at a decent profit. And that over time, the answer has proved to be no, and no in comparison with the better money to be made by redeploying the tangible and intangible assets elsewhere.

[flyer55]

Someone else is bount to pick up the route and probably make a bit of money from it ! Does anybody know when Easyjet starting Bremen?