Aer Lingus starts Dubai service from next March
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I was actually thinking the exact same thing, Idunno; DM may well asking WW to keep an office free at the Waterside!
We all know Ahern's interest in aviation issues and frankly, I can't see any hope of privatisation taking place in 2006. Some excuse will be found; it doesn't matter what Cullen says or has said; the real power rests with Ahern and he wouldn't think twice about stuffing Aer Lingus as long as his political interests are protected; you can see that quite clearly in the whole Open Skies thing. IF (and thankfully, it's a "if" too far) the govt could get away with extending the stopover for another two years at least, it would, regardless of whether it put EI at a competitive disadvantage vis a vis every other European airline.
I am, however, concerned about Aer Lingus going east if it isn't prepared to invest. It's all very well to say that you are going to focus on the lower end of the market, but if the airline gets a reputation for poor service, bad IFE and moody cabin crew (and unfortunately, it is starting to take hold), it might as well stick to US routes. If it's interested in making this a good revenue earner, particularly "up front", it has to show some interest in providing a good standard of airline quality.
We all know Ahern's interest in aviation issues and frankly, I can't see any hope of privatisation taking place in 2006. Some excuse will be found; it doesn't matter what Cullen says or has said; the real power rests with Ahern and he wouldn't think twice about stuffing Aer Lingus as long as his political interests are protected; you can see that quite clearly in the whole Open Skies thing. IF (and thankfully, it's a "if" too far) the govt could get away with extending the stopover for another two years at least, it would, regardless of whether it put EI at a competitive disadvantage vis a vis every other European airline.
I am, however, concerned about Aer Lingus going east if it isn't prepared to invest. It's all very well to say that you are going to focus on the lower end of the market, but if the airline gets a reputation for poor service, bad IFE and moody cabin crew (and unfortunately, it is starting to take hold), it might as well stick to US routes. If it's interested in making this a good revenue earner, particularly "up front", it has to show some interest in providing a good standard of airline quality.
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open skies
Much of the blame for the stopover continuing must rest with the Americans .They have tolerated it for far too long. It would have been gone years ago if they retaliated by insisting that 50% of Irish flights must serve Bangor Maine or Providence Rhode Island.
I can't imagine them tolerating it from any other european country. I wouldn't be surprised if the Irish American lobby in Washington succeed in retaining it for another few years though I suspect that the Irish Government want rid of it this time and will be happy to blame Brussells and Washington.
I can't imagine them tolerating it from any other european country. I wouldn't be surprised if the Irish American lobby in Washington succeed in retaining it for another few years though I suspect that the Irish Government want rid of it this time and will be happy to blame Brussells and Washington.
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I've often thought that, but at the end of the day, once you start blaming others, you can go on and on. Ultimately, while I think US carriers could have presented an ultimatum to the Irish govt, the buck has to stop in Merrion St. If the interest isn't there, there's no point looking elsewhere. Yes, as a fix to solve the upcoming Open Skies thing, we can rely on the Americans and hope they say "no", but what if they don't. Is it then "their" fault? No; we have to take an interest in furthering our best interests and unfortunately, on the aviation side, we've never done that.
The core issue is that Ireland is, despite all its economic growth in recent years, a peripheral and small island. Any sane and responsible approach to transport policy would recognise the value of air transport as a key to challenging that; sadly, as we're seeing, the biggest single obstacle to that is not the EU, the US or any of EI's competitors; it's our own government - and for specious and shortsighted economic reasons which will not only hold us back, but won't (and have been proven not to) help the area they were designed to help. Unfortunately, you can go blue in the face trying to tell them this, but the interest isn't there. Until we have a government - and a leadership prepared to take the long view, not see aviation in isolation, nor as a hostage to other politicial scheming, it won't be able to serve our interests.
We've got to keep banging away at this; unfortunately (and without wishing to pass blame elsewhere), one of my experiences - having set up an aviation lobby group - is not just that it's very difficult to get media interest in the issues, but often some of those who should be fighting for a responsible policy - IBEC, Chambers of Commerce (particularly Dublin) and even IALPA - have been less than forthcoming in support. It's not publicity for the lobby itself, but if those with common interests don't come together and fight for those interests and stay silent when they are threatened, then frankly, they get what they deserve. What did the Chambers of Commerce say about the whole Open Skies fiasco? What member of the media took up the point that we are actually relying on the Americans to resist OUR government's efforts to fight for a competitive disadvantage. So, let's start getting the message across ...
To borrow (and amend slightly) our Dear Leader's words; very little done and a hell of a lot left to do ...
The core issue is that Ireland is, despite all its economic growth in recent years, a peripheral and small island. Any sane and responsible approach to transport policy would recognise the value of air transport as a key to challenging that; sadly, as we're seeing, the biggest single obstacle to that is not the EU, the US or any of EI's competitors; it's our own government - and for specious and shortsighted economic reasons which will not only hold us back, but won't (and have been proven not to) help the area they were designed to help. Unfortunately, you can go blue in the face trying to tell them this, but the interest isn't there. Until we have a government - and a leadership prepared to take the long view, not see aviation in isolation, nor as a hostage to other politicial scheming, it won't be able to serve our interests.
We've got to keep banging away at this; unfortunately (and without wishing to pass blame elsewhere), one of my experiences - having set up an aviation lobby group - is not just that it's very difficult to get media interest in the issues, but often some of those who should be fighting for a responsible policy - IBEC, Chambers of Commerce (particularly Dublin) and even IALPA - have been less than forthcoming in support. It's not publicity for the lobby itself, but if those with common interests don't come together and fight for those interests and stay silent when they are threatened, then frankly, they get what they deserve. What did the Chambers of Commerce say about the whole Open Skies fiasco? What member of the media took up the point that we are actually relying on the Americans to resist OUR government's efforts to fight for a competitive disadvantage. So, let's start getting the message across ...
To borrow (and amend slightly) our Dear Leader's words; very little done and a hell of a lot left to do ...
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The biggest obstacle to the flotation is not just political backpedalling by Bertie, there is a fiscal difficulty in the General Pension Scheme (this does not apply to the pilots, who are in a different scheme).
The General Scheme is 336 Million euros in deficit and this must be sorted before due diligence can be passed on the way to a flotation.
The company is probably worth between 400M and 800M on the market. Depending on how big a stake the State is prepared to sell. If they sell 50%, and a further 14% goes to Staff, they might stand to raise only 145M - 290M, not enough to even cover the pension deficit, and cash injections will also be subject to EU approval.
They might sell the whole thing, lock stock and barrel, but even then the take will not leave a huge pot of gold - a maximum of maybe 300M after the pension issue is cleared.
That won't buy many A330s.
The General Scheme is 336 Million euros in deficit and this must be sorted before due diligence can be passed on the way to a flotation.
The company is probably worth between 400M and 800M on the market. Depending on how big a stake the State is prepared to sell. If they sell 50%, and a further 14% goes to Staff, they might stand to raise only 145M - 290M, not enough to even cover the pension deficit, and cash injections will also be subject to EU approval.
They might sell the whole thing, lock stock and barrel, but even then the take will not leave a huge pot of gold - a maximum of maybe 300M after the pension issue is cleared.
That won't buy many A330s.
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Is the route going to carry freight or will it be passengers only like the short-haul operation?
If it is carrying freight, how will it be affected by Singapore Airlines Cargo announcing extra capacity between Dublin and Dubai?
If it is carrying freight, how will it be affected by Singapore Airlines Cargo announcing extra capacity between Dublin and Dubai?
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Without knowing for certain yet, I'd be very surprised if EI wasn't carrying cargo. As for SQ, I presume it's just using DXB as an route stop to SIN and feeding into its hub there; if EI is feeding into EK's network, then it will have as large (if not a significantly larger) network to feed into at DXB.
We should know the schedule and details of EI's flights tomorrow, when they go on sale. Hopefully, flights will be timed to feed into/out of EK's hub there. This is possible, but we'll see how it pans out.
Instead of departing the same evening (or early morning), EI could stay overnight, leaving at about 8am and still get back here (by c.1pm), still in time to operate one of the later t/a departures from DUB.
Incidentally, have also heard rumours that QR is interested in DUB. Acft shortage (like EI!) is a key obstacle however, but at least it has acft on order.
We should know the schedule and details of EI's flights tomorrow, when they go on sale. Hopefully, flights will be timed to feed into/out of EK's hub there. This is possible, but we'll see how it pans out.
Instead of departing the same evening (or early morning), EI could stay overnight, leaving at about 8am and still get back here (by c.1pm), still in time to operate one of the later t/a departures from DUB.
Incidentally, have also heard rumours that QR is interested in DUB. Acft shortage (like EI!) is a key obstacle however, but at least it has acft on order.
