Flybe Route Axes
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Flybe Route Axes
Flybe,after having cut Bhd to IOM and LCY will, over the course of the next few months axe their services from BHD to BRS and NCL and EDI will be reduced to 2 per day.Remember folks all I have forcasted has came to fruition.................................................... ..
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MMmm, yes, well, alas this is not true.
As far as I know Flybe have no intentions of dropping these routes. The IOM/LCY route is profitable but is being dropped simply due to the fact that the D8-300s will be gone from the fleet soon.
The Q400 is unable to operate into LCY without significant and costly training for crews. I imagine that this has been a fairly key element which for one route is simply not viable. If Flybe were still on the JER/EDI/ABZ-LCY then things maybe different.
The Q400 operating the BRS route currently goes on to operate BRSBOD and this route is doing very well. Surely if the route was struggling then both routes would have been ditched when Flybe were losing excessive amounts of money a couple years back.
We'll see, but I think you'll find that Flybe will be around on these routes for a while.
As far as I know Flybe have no intentions of dropping these routes. The IOM/LCY route is profitable but is being dropped simply due to the fact that the D8-300s will be gone from the fleet soon.
The Q400 is unable to operate into LCY without significant and costly training for crews. I imagine that this has been a fairly key element which for one route is simply not viable. If Flybe were still on the JER/EDI/ABZ-LCY then things maybe different.
The Q400 operating the BRS route currently goes on to operate BRSBOD and this route is doing very well. Surely if the route was struggling then both routes would have been ditched when Flybe were losing excessive amounts of money a couple years back.
We'll see, but I think you'll find that Flybe will be around on these routes for a while.
Glynn, I think you are overstating your position somewhat. I note from previous posts that you have forecast FlyBe dropping rotations from BRS and LBA to BHD routes. Well, LBA did get a frequency reduction from four to three, but this was at the same time as the Q400 took over from the -300 which meant overall more seats were on offer. I don't particularly call that a major cutback of the style that you were no doubt anticipating.
As for the rest of your "forecasts" all being right - from what I can see of your past postings, your forecasts are "forecasts" to the extent that Mystic Meg could predict that six lottery balls will be drawn in this week's draw. Saying that bmibaby won't move from BFS to BHD, or FlyBe won't fly Belfast-Spain seems to be more an ability to forecast things that won't happen rather than things that will. Whether either your or Mystic Meg's forecasting record is sufficiently accurate to predict FlyBe's future route plans, I have my doubts. Time will, no doubt, tell.
As for the rest of your "forecasts" all being right - from what I can see of your past postings, your forecasts are "forecasts" to the extent that Mystic Meg could predict that six lottery balls will be drawn in this week's draw. Saying that bmibaby won't move from BFS to BHD, or FlyBe won't fly Belfast-Spain seems to be more an ability to forecast things that won't happen rather than things that will. Whether either your or Mystic Meg's forecasting record is sufficiently accurate to predict FlyBe's future route plans, I have my doubts. Time will, no doubt, tell.
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The August 2004 CAA stats show that Belfast was the most popular scheduled destination from BRS that month with a total of 31,600 pax – 23,400 via BFS with easyJet and 8,200 via BHD with Flybe. The next popular routes were AMS with 29,900, then EDI, GLA and DUB, each in the mid to high 20,000s.
September 2004 (the last CAA stats month so far available for domestic traffic) still show Belfast high up in the BRS scheduled league table with 26,300 to both airports, of which Flybe carried 7,000 via BHD. Only AMS with 29,100 and EDI with 26,800 were higher.
The August Flybe figures to BHD give an average load of 49 (63% of the DH-8-400’s capacity) and the September figures give 43 (55%). Not earth shattering and one must assume the yields are not spectacular either because of Flybe having to compete with easyJet on the fares front.
When, towards the end of 2002, Flybe announced new routes to JER, BOD, EGC and TLS from BRS to complement the existing BHD route, there were very strong indications that more routes would follow. This has not happened – yet anyway. I believe the French routes have all performed well, but I wonder if Flybe’s interest is now elsewhere following the commencement of numerous new routes from other UK airports.
If the airline does not wish to base a/c at BRS but does want to continue its French routes it has to carry on finding a/c based elsewhere to service these destinations. I believe at present they use a/c based at BHD and BHX. So this might be a good reason to keep the BRS-BHD route running. The alternative would be to re-position empty aircraft or use more W-formations as they do with their BHX-based machines that currently service the BRS-TLS route.
I am not sure whether JobsaGoodun is a Flybe insider. If he is (please forgive my assumption on gender) I respect the fact that he may not always be able to comment fully. However, he does seem well-informed on Flybe and I always find his thoughts on the subject illuminating.
September 2004 (the last CAA stats month so far available for domestic traffic) still show Belfast high up in the BRS scheduled league table with 26,300 to both airports, of which Flybe carried 7,000 via BHD. Only AMS with 29,100 and EDI with 26,800 were higher.
The August Flybe figures to BHD give an average load of 49 (63% of the DH-8-400’s capacity) and the September figures give 43 (55%). Not earth shattering and one must assume the yields are not spectacular either because of Flybe having to compete with easyJet on the fares front.
When, towards the end of 2002, Flybe announced new routes to JER, BOD, EGC and TLS from BRS to complement the existing BHD route, there were very strong indications that more routes would follow. This has not happened – yet anyway. I believe the French routes have all performed well, but I wonder if Flybe’s interest is now elsewhere following the commencement of numerous new routes from other UK airports.
If the airline does not wish to base a/c at BRS but does want to continue its French routes it has to carry on finding a/c based elsewhere to service these destinations. I believe at present they use a/c based at BHD and BHX. So this might be a good reason to keep the BRS-BHD route running. The alternative would be to re-position empty aircraft or use more W-formations as they do with their BHX-based machines that currently service the BRS-TLS route.
I am not sure whether JobsaGoodun is a Flybe insider. If he is (please forgive my assumption on gender) I respect the fact that he may not always be able to comment fully. However, he does seem well-informed on Flybe and I always find his thoughts on the subject illuminating.
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For the record, if you look at flybe's summer schedule they will be operating 3x brs, 3x ncl and 4x edi to name but 3 routes to bhd. I see non of glynn-kayes forcasts here. I think jobsaGoodun has it right.
For the record merchantVenturer, I think you may have over estimated the sectors flow in aug and sept as I understand that the actual loadfactor was quite alot higher than you have calculated.
Finally Grahamk, as hopefully other posts have suggested, it is not true. As it happens flybe can compete with easyjet thanks in particular to the economics of the q400 which i suspect is not fully appreciated by those not close to it.
If indeed flybe couldn't stand the easyjet presence, then why the move into lpl?
For the record merchantVenturer, I think you may have over estimated the sectors flow in aug and sept as I understand that the actual loadfactor was quite alot higher than you have calculated.
Finally Grahamk, as hopefully other posts have suggested, it is not true. As it happens flybe can compete with easyjet thanks in particular to the economics of the q400 which i suspect is not fully appreciated by those not close to it.
If indeed flybe couldn't stand the easyjet presence, then why the move into lpl?
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Given the topic starter's well documented and almost unnatural dislike of all things BHD & Flybe, these "predictions" should be taken as pure wishful thinking. It is perhaps no small coincidence that the routes mentioned are all included in Easyjets' current fares promotion from BFS which would would seem to indicate that they are being subjected to considerable competition from Flybe on these specific routes.
Of course, only privileged insiders will know Flybes' plans for current routes out of BHD - suggest we all wait and see how many of the said gentleman's predictions actually come true!
The forthcoming planning review decision on the BHD passenger number cap may well influence Flybe operations here. A positive result could well see an expansion not a reduction.
Of course, only privileged insiders will know Flybes' plans for current routes out of BHD - suggest we all wait and see how many of the said gentleman's predictions actually come true!
The forthcoming planning review decision on the BHD passenger number cap may well influence Flybe operations here. A positive result could well see an expansion not a reduction.
Last edited by ALLMCC; 4th Jan 2005 at 12:48.
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For the record merchantVenturer, I think you may have over estimated the sectors flow in aug and sept as I understand that the actual loadfactor was quite alot higher than you have calculated.
Last summer the BRS-BHD route operated 3 return flights each weekday with two on Saturdays and two on Sundays.
For August this gives a total number of 168 one-way sectors. The CAA pax figures for August, 8232, divided by 168 gives 49.
In September there were 164 one-way sectors. The CAA pax figures for that month, 7034, divided by 164 gives 42.89.
Incidentally, I hope the BRS-BHD route does persist. As I pointed out, Belfast and Northern Ireland seem a popular destination from Bristol (and presumably vice versa) and I hope there continues to be enough traffic to satisfy both Flybe to BHD and easyJet to BFS.
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suggest we all wait and see how many of the said gentleman's predictions actually come true!
ALLMCC that is rich coming from you!! A quick scan through your ramblings reveals all the same qualities in you which you attribute to Glynn ...except read BFS for BHD and EASYJET for Flybe.....As for your predictions! remind me NVER to take racing tips from you!!
Personally I am EXTREMELY happy for them (the airlines) to prosper ....gives me more work to do ...pays my mortgage
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Flood Gates have started to open.
22 handed in their Notice last Friday to Go to Monarch, with a few more before the Christmas break aswell.
I'm sure there will be more to follow.
8 more lined up for Easy Jet shortly.
Plus various holding pools starting to empty at Virgin, A2000, BA, etc. Hmmmm.............
Interesting times ahead, the writing has been on the wall for a long, long time.
22 handed in their Notice last Friday to Go to Monarch, with a few more before the Christmas break aswell.
I'm sure there will be more to follow.
8 more lined up for Easy Jet shortly.
Plus various holding pools starting to empty at Virgin, A2000, BA, etc. Hmmmm.............
Interesting times ahead, the writing has been on the wall for a long, long time.
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Smokie
You seem to be indicating a mass exodus from Flybe and that their days may be numbered - is there not a constant movement of personnel between airlines? It would be interesting to know if the grass is always greener when they get there? Or is it often a case of "better the devil you know"?
This seems to be the case in other service industries - is aviation any different?
You seem to be indicating a mass exodus from Flybe and that their days may be numbered - is there not a constant movement of personnel between airlines? It would be interesting to know if the grass is always greener when they get there? Or is it often a case of "better the devil you know"?
This seems to be the case in other service industries - is aviation any different?
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Ohhh per-lease!
Smackin of desperation with 14million in profits over the first 6mths of the year.....Hardly!.... Flybe appear to be trying new untapped routes ....Prague is a prime example of a massive market that didn't exist 5-6yrs ago. Were the first operators to Prague 'smacking of desperation?
Staff will always come and go this time of the year as this is when many of the charter airlines begin to hire for the busy summer period.....some will say it's the best move they ever made and others will realise that the grass isn't always greener....(it's just they'll never say so!)
The one thing to be sure on, is that there are always more people out there looking for jobs than have them, now granted, this may bring an issue of experience but on a short haul, regional airline some of these guys may be doing 4-6 take off and landings a day.
Experience is quickly obtained.
Smackin of desperation with 14million in profits over the first 6mths of the year.....Hardly!.... Flybe appear to be trying new untapped routes ....Prague is a prime example of a massive market that didn't exist 5-6yrs ago. Were the first operators to Prague 'smacking of desperation?
Staff will always come and go this time of the year as this is when many of the charter airlines begin to hire for the busy summer period.....some will say it's the best move they ever made and others will realise that the grass isn't always greener....(it's just they'll never say so!)
The one thing to be sure on, is that there are always more people out there looking for jobs than have them, now granted, this may bring an issue of experience but on a short haul, regional airline some of these guys may be doing 4-6 take off and landings a day.
Experience is quickly obtained.
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If SMOKIE is correct about the numbers leaving for pastures new, then pilot recruitment must be concentrating the minds of the DFO, to name to one.
Nothing on their website just yet about flight deck requirements.
Nothing on their website just yet about flight deck requirements.
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Nakata,
I am aware that Flybe have pulled off the SOUPRG route, but I wasn't indicating that it'd be a route that worked for everyone. I was rather indicating that until a few years back you would've had to go to London to fly there. Now, Prague is a destination available from many departure points around the UK.
Maybe its worth bearing in mind that the reason for Flybe's current financial success could be partly due to the fact that they will not allow loss making routes to have a negative impact over the long term.
Yes SOUTLS does not appear this summer but it's worth noting the following destinations that do - Limoges, Rennes, Cherbourg, Brest, Bordeaux, La Rochelle and Perpignan. Some new ones and some back for the summer season, but many more destinations than previously offered. All businesses change and I guess Flybe feel that their is more stability in the 'second home' market in France/Spain than in the short break market that the likes of Prague appears to offer.
Lets just appreciate that, for those living in the catchment area of Southampton, accessability to more varied destinations has been given to them by Flybe. Don't knock them for that surely
I am aware that Flybe have pulled off the SOUPRG route, but I wasn't indicating that it'd be a route that worked for everyone. I was rather indicating that until a few years back you would've had to go to London to fly there. Now, Prague is a destination available from many departure points around the UK.
Maybe its worth bearing in mind that the reason for Flybe's current financial success could be partly due to the fact that they will not allow loss making routes to have a negative impact over the long term.
Yes SOUTLS does not appear this summer but it's worth noting the following destinations that do - Limoges, Rennes, Cherbourg, Brest, Bordeaux, La Rochelle and Perpignan. Some new ones and some back for the summer season, but many more destinations than previously offered. All businesses change and I guess Flybe feel that their is more stability in the 'second home' market in France/Spain than in the short break market that the likes of Prague appears to offer.
Lets just appreciate that, for those living in the catchment area of Southampton, accessability to more varied destinations has been given to them by Flybe. Don't knock them for that surely
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Nakata77
Prague may be a great LC destination, just not from SOU.
The days of persisting with routes that don't pay their way are over for any carrier working to the LCC model. Ryanair, Easy et al are no different.
ecj
I wouldn't take a lot of notice of what Smokie says, he has been bleating on about everybody leaving for years. If he could get a job elsewhere he would, but of course he can't, so he won't. "Bitter and twisted" fits well here...
Prague may be a great LC destination, just not from SOU.
The days of persisting with routes that don't pay their way are over for any carrier working to the LCC model. Ryanair, Easy et al are no different.
ecj
I wouldn't take a lot of notice of what Smokie says, he has been bleating on about everybody leaving for years. If he could get a job elsewhere he would, but of course he can't, so he won't. "Bitter and twisted" fits well here...
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ecj ,
Phone (do NOT name names) and ask him yourself.
You will probably find that the toll has risen considerably since then.
There are at least 2 more today, that I know of in addition.
I also notice that there has been zero opposition from
" Da Management" wrt the new pay proposal.
That says it all really.
Bolts, doors and Horses spring to mind.
MOR,
Bitter and twisted?
Sounds like you've have an Axe to grind or another knife to stick in.
Probably both knowing you.
and cut out the snides and unecessary remarks. If you cannot contain yourself just move on.
Phone (do NOT name names) and ask him yourself.
You will probably find that the toll has risen considerably since then.
There are at least 2 more today, that I know of in addition.
I also notice that there has been zero opposition from
" Da Management" wrt the new pay proposal.
That says it all really.
Bolts, doors and Horses spring to mind.
MOR,
Bitter and twisted?
Sounds like you've have an Axe to grind or another knife to stick in.
Probably both knowing you.
and cut out the snides and unecessary remarks. If you cannot contain yourself just move on.