Ryanair struggles to fill seats
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Ryanair struggles to fill seats
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quote .....
"The airline said passenger traffic grew by 45 percent to 1.9 million in February versus the same month last year"
another way to look at the numbers .....
cheers ....
"The airline said passenger traffic grew by 45 percent to 1.9 million in February versus the same month last year"
another way to look at the numbers .....
cheers ....
Surprising to see the FR load factor is down from 81% to 77% while Easyjet have maintained theirs at 89% (which I would have thought on an extensive network is almost as high as you can get).
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3535221.stm
Now I know, being a humble beancounter, that load factor beauty contests are meaningless, especially for LCCs, and can be just an indication of who is giving their seats away for £1 each, and the only real indication at the end of the day is cash in the bank, but Ryanair do seem to have lost the "golden aura" of recent years, and almost every bit of news about them seems to be negative now. Are they trying to grow a bit too fast ?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3535221.stm
Now I know, being a humble beancounter, that load factor beauty contests are meaningless, especially for LCCs, and can be just an indication of who is giving their seats away for £1 each, and the only real indication at the end of the day is cash in the bank, but Ryanair do seem to have lost the "golden aura" of recent years, and almost every bit of news about them seems to be negative now. Are they trying to grow a bit too fast ?
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It is not surprising that the load factor is down while the number of passengers carried has increased.
Last January their fleet was largly made up of 200 series aircraft. Since then a large number of newly delivered 800 series which carry 40 or so more passenger are in the fleet.
Given the extra seats now available this will take a lot of additional passengers to make up the difference.
Last January their fleet was largly made up of 200 series aircraft. Since then a large number of newly delivered 800 series which carry 40 or so more passenger are in the fleet.
Given the extra seats now available this will take a lot of additional passengers to make up the difference.
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Stormin,
The wheelchair thing is not really fair, Ryan were only passing on the charges that practicaly all airports charge to the airlines for assisting wheelchair passengers.
To my mind the passenger in question should have sued the airports as it is they who discriminate.
The wheelchair thing is not really fair, Ryan were only passing on the charges that practicaly all airports charge to the airlines for assisting wheelchair passengers.
To my mind the passenger in question should have sued the airports as it is they who discriminate.
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I don't think the wheelchair thing is the real issue. The larger aircraft is more likely to be. However, I think a business model predicated on a (pretty much) continual increase in flights taken is flawed. It's like cable TV. You simply aren't going to get millions of viewers for the 232 new channels that it brings. "Freedom of choice" - yeah, right - and what quality of programs do you think the income of the average cable TV station will allow?
Same for airlines. Of course there has been a huge growth in the number of profitable flights - well above what players like BA, EI and bmi might have imagined - as people discover they can affordably just pop over to Biarritz or whatever for the weekend. But there is a limit to the number of weekends people will take - and a limit to the number of people that will do it. It is high - but I suspect that we are getting towards it, and growth of >10% per year will not be possible for ever.
Also, the traditional airlines are fighting back. A large amount of growth was at their expense to begin with - but people have realised that you can get seats almost as cheaply on bmi and BA and still get free drinks and a complaints policy thrown in. So (this is what will hurt the LoCo's most) whereas people were buying one way tickets from STN to EDI for £150 with EZY etc at one stage, they have realised that there are other cheaper options. The high yield pax which gave the LoCo's their amazing profits for several years have discovered that they don't need to spend so much.
I have no doubt that EZ and FR have a few good years still to come - but I have doubts about their ability to go on producing double digit growth - and they have already committed themselves to acquiring the infrastructure that needs this growth to pay for itself.
Same for airlines. Of course there has been a huge growth in the number of profitable flights - well above what players like BA, EI and bmi might have imagined - as people discover they can affordably just pop over to Biarritz or whatever for the weekend. But there is a limit to the number of weekends people will take - and a limit to the number of people that will do it. It is high - but I suspect that we are getting towards it, and growth of >10% per year will not be possible for ever.
Also, the traditional airlines are fighting back. A large amount of growth was at their expense to begin with - but people have realised that you can get seats almost as cheaply on bmi and BA and still get free drinks and a complaints policy thrown in. So (this is what will hurt the LoCo's most) whereas people were buying one way tickets from STN to EDI for £150 with EZY etc at one stage, they have realised that there are other cheaper options. The high yield pax which gave the LoCo's their amazing profits for several years have discovered that they don't need to spend so much.
I have no doubt that EZ and FR have a few good years still to come - but I have doubts about their ability to go on producing double digit growth - and they have already committed themselves to acquiring the infrastructure that needs this growth to pay for itself.
Young Paul - your parochial views seem to ignore growth on the continent and in the regions. Ryan and Ezy are not constrained like BA and BMI and Lingus to operating solely in their national market.
Double digit growth is possible when Europe boasts only 24% of the low cost flights operated profitably in the United States.
Cheers
WWW
Double digit growth is possible when Europe boasts only 24% of the low cost flights operated profitably in the United States.
Cheers
WWW
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Trouble is, Ryanair have faled to make any routes match the success of the dub-lon ones. Something like 40% of their profits still come from that route alone. As someone said last month "There may be a business case for flying from london to nowhere, but not from nowhere to nowhere".
For evidence, the analysts are not impressed with rya's success anywhere else than their 'original' routes
For evidence, the analysts are not impressed with rya's success anywhere else than their 'original' routes
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The more 800´s in the fleet probably explains alot the drop in load factor, after all the Ryanair 800´s carry over 50% more passengers.
Like someone said earlier the load factor race is irrelevant. Ryanair has a 55-60% break even loadfactor compared to easyJet´s 75-80%. You do the math.
The bottom line is Ryanair carries 200.000 more passengers a month than easyJet, makes a s**t load more money than easyJet and will continue to do so with or without the wheelies.
As for the DUB-STN theory, analysts must agree that that a single route can´t carry an airline of 70 odd airplanes and over 140 routes, just wouldn´t make sense to keep expanding.
Like someone said earlier the load factor race is irrelevant. Ryanair has a 55-60% break even loadfactor compared to easyJet´s 75-80%. You do the math.
The bottom line is Ryanair carries 200.000 more passengers a month than easyJet, makes a s**t load more money than easyJet and will continue to do so with or without the wheelies.
As for the DUB-STN theory, analysts must agree that that a single route can´t carry an airline of 70 odd airplanes and over 140 routes, just wouldn´t make sense to keep expanding.
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Perhaps its got nothing to do directly with the lo costs.
People are beginning to shop around a bit more again with some national carriers creating competition..
I for example, priced 4 seats Dublin-Prague a few weeks ago.
EI gave a price that was lower than any of the so-called Low cost airlines, it was also a direct flight - no 2or 3 hr London stopover...
Spoke to someone recently also, who has just returned from a few days in Prague... travelled with a stopover in both directions 2 seats for €50 less than my 4... !!!
I think more people are not just automatically assuming the loco's are cheaper without checking elsewhere...
Are the public beginning to vote with their feet ?
shiver me nice new alu tubes !!!
People are beginning to shop around a bit more again with some national carriers creating competition..
I for example, priced 4 seats Dublin-Prague a few weeks ago.
EI gave a price that was lower than any of the so-called Low cost airlines, it was also a direct flight - no 2or 3 hr London stopover...
Spoke to someone recently also, who has just returned from a few days in Prague... travelled with a stopover in both directions 2 seats for €50 less than my 4... !!!
I think more people are not just automatically assuming the loco's are cheaper without checking elsewhere...
Are the public beginning to vote with their feet ?
shiver me nice new alu tubes !!!
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WWW - wwwhatever, dude. Could you give a comparison of GNP as well? Given that people will only start flying for leisure when they have a certain level of disposable income, and given this is the market that the LoCo's are targeting, and given that most people in that situation are in Northern Europe, and a good 50% of Europeans (more so once we have enlarged) are significantly below the level of income that they would think about going away for holidays, I think you are being blithe in your assessment. Remember the LoCo's don't make money from people paying €5 per ticket - they are relying on a goodly number paying €100, which is a significant amount if your family income is €12000.
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To my mind the passenger in question should have sued the airports as it is they who discriminate.
I believe the judge said the airline had to pay up only because the airline had previously agreed (eg contracted) with the airport to be responsible for looking after pax once they check in. The fact that the airline had in effect "subcontracted" the provision of some services from the airport is another matter.
I guess in the future the lawers will write their contracts more carefully so that it's clear who provides what exactly.
Prior to check-in the airport is responsible. so had the airport charged for a chair to get the person from car park to the check-in then they would have lost that part of the case. As it happens I believe the airport did/does provided one free.
Young Paul - well for example easyJet now have two bases in Germany (higher GNP than UK) and one base in France (same GNP as UK). Whilst it boasts ten bases in the UK.
LoCos do NOT target solely leisure travellers looking for low low prices. Business travellers form a large percentage of easyJets customer base. You may be thinking more of Ryanair in this regard but I think you'll find they have a lot of suits boarding their aircraft as well.
The average fare an easyJet customer pays is just under £40.
I think thats affordable to pretty much anybody in the EU.
Whatever you may think somebody somewhere has persuaded both Michael O Leary and Ray Webster to order over 200 new jets between them. They ain't going to fit in the UK are they?
Cheers
WWW
LoCos do NOT target solely leisure travellers looking for low low prices. Business travellers form a large percentage of easyJets customer base. You may be thinking more of Ryanair in this regard but I think you'll find they have a lot of suits boarding their aircraft as well.
The average fare an easyJet customer pays is just under £40.
I think thats affordable to pretty much anybody in the EU.
Whatever you may think somebody somewhere has persuaded both Michael O Leary and Ray Webster to order over 200 new jets between them. They ain't going to fit in the UK are they?
Cheers
WWW
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Well I agree with that much - they aren't going to fit in the UK! And as I've already said, I have no doubt that they have profitable years ahead. I just don't think they can keep growing forever, and the fact that their aircraft are getting a bit less full might suggest they are getting towards the boundaries of the area which will benefit from the gospel according to Southwest.
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... by the way, Ryanair is expecting delivery of 30 B737-800's this year. Enevitably load factors in the 80-90% range are going to be difficult to maintain over the next 12-18 months...
Last edited by mikekilo; 9th Mar 2004 at 20:16.
they are getting towards the boundaries of the area which will benefit from the gospel according to Southwest.
Seems to be one of the lessons that Ryanair have dropped. Easyjet are not quite so bad.
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Maybe now would be the time for Ryanair to consider swapping some of their 737-800 options for smaller 737-700s. They could thus adapt capacity to routes that don't justify a 737-800 (incidentally the largest low-cost aircraft in Europe at 189 seats).
Since both versions are so similar (same type rating for Flight deck and Cabin Crew, similar spares support/engineering, etc), that might be a wise move. After all, better get an 80% load factor on a 737-700 than a 70% load factor on a 737-800 on the same route.
Just a thought...
Since both versions are so similar (same type rating for Flight deck and Cabin Crew, similar spares support/engineering, etc), that might be a wise move. After all, better get an 80% load factor on a 737-700 than a 70% load factor on a 737-800 on the same route.
Just a thought...