Moremi Air van down
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chuks
Most accidents are due to pilot error. They are not usually due to mechanical failure. This is reflected in the statistical analysis of accidents
Most accidents are due to pilot error. They are not usually due to mechanical failure. This is reflected in the statistical analysis of accidents
Do you have evidence for this statement or is this your personal opinion?
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Lies, damn lies and statistics
Do you have evidence for this statement or is this your personal opinion?
Accident statistics
However, when using this 'black art', which I did as an undergraduate, you should factor in probabilities. By gathering together other data I could prove that, statistically, this was not pilot error, but it is all hypothetical.
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The cause of the engine failure should be the most interesting issue.
The PT6 is so extremely reliable that a failure at the critical time just after takeoff has probably never happened before to a single.
A properly maintained PT6 simply does not fail so badly as to cause a serious fire.
This leads me to suspect a prop failure (bird?) or a fuel shortage. A fractured fuel pipe might explain the reported fire. Something very unusual must have happened to cause such a catastrophic failure.
The PT6 is so extremely reliable that a failure at the critical time just after takeoff has probably never happened before to a single.
A properly maintained PT6 simply does not fail so badly as to cause a serious fire.
This leads me to suspect a prop failure (bird?) or a fuel shortage. A fractured fuel pipe might explain the reported fire. Something very unusual must have happened to cause such a catastrophic failure.
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I'm in Martin's corner and I am definitely standing up again for him here. Yes, he was a good pilot - but human so not absolutely infallible, but very careful and correct. He was professional, experienced and knew Caravans and Botswana flying very, very well. He erred on the side of caution rather that took a gungho attitude, adored his daughter and having started a new life with his family in Botswana had everything going for him.
He joined Moremi to fulfill a dream of becoming a management pilot, and was so chuffed at the start. Over 9 months that dream became disillusionment to the point he would rather return to what he had left in Kenya than continue with what he had found in Botswana. He left that decision a week too late.
He got airborne out of Xakanaka planning a normal departure to the right back to Pom pom. When whatever went wrong with the aircraft happened, he called a Mayday, banked slightly to the left and headed for the only clear area for an emergency put-down. At 25-50' agl with a dead-stopped prop, and very few options for anything, his left wing struck a tree ripping open the fuel tank and spiralling the aircraft down in flames into a bushy area of ground.
All of that and the final outcome of the crash is in the public domain. What isn't known is what had happened to that aircraft/engine in the past - what had been replaced in the last overhaul, what components were near life or allowable limits, how many takeoffs in the past had been a bit overtemped, overtorqued, firewalled or how many accidental shut-downs/restarts had not been declared or if pilots/company had been operating out of manufacturer parameters. What made this engine/component let go because I really don't think that Martin put the aircraft in the swamp for any other reason than he had absolutely no choice.
There's been a fair amount of unconcluded discussion about performance and payload in regard to this particular airstrip. From what I know of Martin, he would not willingly overload or operate near the envelope so if this is shown to be a definite factor, then the next question to be asked is why he acted out of character, for what advantage, to whom.
There are people out there who have more information that has not been heard, who know more background to the situation, who flew the aircraft in the past...
He joined Moremi to fulfill a dream of becoming a management pilot, and was so chuffed at the start. Over 9 months that dream became disillusionment to the point he would rather return to what he had left in Kenya than continue with what he had found in Botswana. He left that decision a week too late.
He got airborne out of Xakanaka planning a normal departure to the right back to Pom pom. When whatever went wrong with the aircraft happened, he called a Mayday, banked slightly to the left and headed for the only clear area for an emergency put-down. At 25-50' agl with a dead-stopped prop, and very few options for anything, his left wing struck a tree ripping open the fuel tank and spiralling the aircraft down in flames into a bushy area of ground.
All of that and the final outcome of the crash is in the public domain. What isn't known is what had happened to that aircraft/engine in the past - what had been replaced in the last overhaul, what components were near life or allowable limits, how many takeoffs in the past had been a bit overtemped, overtorqued, firewalled or how many accidental shut-downs/restarts had not been declared or if pilots/company had been operating out of manufacturer parameters. What made this engine/component let go because I really don't think that Martin put the aircraft in the swamp for any other reason than he had absolutely no choice.
There's been a fair amount of unconcluded discussion about performance and payload in regard to this particular airstrip. From what I know of Martin, he would not willingly overload or operate near the envelope so if this is shown to be a definite factor, then the next question to be asked is why he acted out of character, for what advantage, to whom.
There are people out there who have more information that has not been heard, who know more background to the situation, who flew the aircraft in the past...
Last edited by Foxcotte; 1st Feb 2012 at 12:45.
Está servira para distraerle.
I thought #188 a brilliant resume and a better letter than any I've read in Flight International for a long while.
It reminded me of Emile Zola's letter of 1898 titled 'J'accuse' published in L'Aurore newspaper and addressed to the President of France regarding the trial and jailing of Alfred Dreyfus. That letter produced its desired result.
It reminded me of Emile Zola's letter of 1898 titled 'J'accuse' published in L'Aurore newspaper and addressed to the President of France regarding the trial and jailing of Alfred Dreyfus. That letter produced its desired result.
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Quote:
The cause of the engine failure should be the most interesting issue.
The PT6 is so extremely reliable that a failure at the critical time just after takeoff has probably never happened before to a single.
End Quote.
Not so rare as you think!
in Jan 2009 A2-AKG, another C208B caravan based in Maun suffered power loss imidiately after takeoff from Pjajio Airstrip. In that case however the strip is surrounded by open swampland and in the resulting forced landing no-one was killed.
ASN Aircraft accident Cessna 208B Grand Caravan A2-AKG Piajo Airstrip, Chief's Island, Okavango Delta
If that was the case in AKD's situation I would imagine that a similar outcome might have occurred, (instead of in xaxanakas case where the airstrip is surrounded by trees)
Both Caravans were maintained at the same maintenance company in Maun.
I flew caravans in NZ after leaving Maun for a company that operates caravans on regular IFR passenger schedules in an extremely salt heavy environment.
With the regulations in NZ for Single Engine IFR, the engines were required to maintained to a much higher standard which included:
-Daily compressor washes
-ADAS downloads sent to Pratt and Whitney regularly
-More frequent boroscope inspections of the compressor and tubine blades
This company has operated caravans since 1985 with no engine problems!
Maybe something along those lines might help prevent a future PT6 failure in Bots? Would hate to see the same sort of failure happen for a third time...
The cause of the engine failure should be the most interesting issue.
The PT6 is so extremely reliable that a failure at the critical time just after takeoff has probably never happened before to a single.
End Quote.
Not so rare as you think!
in Jan 2009 A2-AKG, another C208B caravan based in Maun suffered power loss imidiately after takeoff from Pjajio Airstrip. In that case however the strip is surrounded by open swampland and in the resulting forced landing no-one was killed.
ASN Aircraft accident Cessna 208B Grand Caravan A2-AKG Piajo Airstrip, Chief's Island, Okavango Delta
If that was the case in AKD's situation I would imagine that a similar outcome might have occurred, (instead of in xaxanakas case where the airstrip is surrounded by trees)
Both Caravans were maintained at the same maintenance company in Maun.
I flew caravans in NZ after leaving Maun for a company that operates caravans on regular IFR passenger schedules in an extremely salt heavy environment.
With the regulations in NZ for Single Engine IFR, the engines were required to maintained to a much higher standard which included:
-Daily compressor washes
-ADAS downloads sent to Pratt and Whitney regularly
-More frequent boroscope inspections of the compressor and tubine blades
This company has operated caravans since 1985 with no engine problems!
Maybe something along those lines might help prevent a future PT6 failure in Bots? Would hate to see the same sort of failure happen for a third time...
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in Jan 2009 A2-AKG, another C208B caravan based in Maun suffered power loss imidiately after takeoff from Pjajio Airstrip. In that case however the strip is surrounded by open swampland and in the resulting forced landing no-one was killed.
Sounds like there may be lessons to be learned about maintainance.
This sort of thing does not happen to a properly maintained PT6
Without the publication of proper investigations lessons cannot be learned.
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Web Site back online
Moremi Air - Botswana
Just one page but I just love the last line:
Nice one SS. 
Just one page but I just love the last line:
......eager to make sure that your journey is part of a memorable safari experience.
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It was operating out of a heavily contaminated runway. Pilot said as soon as he put the inertial separator back into normal, engine went pop and he came down.
No fire, nothing. Engine went back to P&WC I believe.
Martin does not touch the separator until through 1000ft.
Edit: That website needs a bit of tweaking... photos are incredibly old... the C172 on there has been written off (By Maun's CAA safety officer)
No fire, nothing. Engine went back to P&WC I believe.
Martin does not touch the separator until through 1000ft.
Edit: That website needs a bit of tweaking... photos are incredibly old... the C172 on there has been written off (By Maun's CAA safety officer)
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To all on PPrune.
Go and sign up to Register at Africa Aviation / Afrika Lugvaart
Much better for us African Aviators.
Go and sign up to Register at Africa Aviation / Afrika Lugvaart
Much better for us African Aviators.
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As far as I am concerned they can ban me for life!!
I tried to help some guys on the B1900 get a job and they took my thread off twice. Some guy named Rob.
I was always under the impression that this was a Forum to give guys information
Well in the end they hired a crew.
PPrune can go &^%&^ themselves.
I tried to help some guys on the B1900 get a job and they took my thread off twice. Some guy named Rob.
I was always under the impression that this was a Forum to give guys information
Well in the end they hired a crew.
PPrune can go &^%&^ themselves.
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Is there any Transparency?
So what happened to the accident report for the other caravan; CAAB must surely have produced this by now after more than two years, or is this what we can expect from AKD's accident? I have tried to look on the CAAB website and I can find no accident or incident reports posted.
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Where is the preliminary report promised in February so that we can have some idea as to what is going on?
Last edited by Capt Livingstone; 5th Mar 2012 at 05:27.
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Thank you Ngami Times
Keep up the pressure, the press are reading this link. Last article before sport.
The Ngami Times
This link now only to the current publication (edited 28/05/12)
The Ngami Times
This link now only to the current publication (edited 28/05/12)
Last edited by Capt Livingstone; 28th May 2012 at 08:28.