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Another runway incursion - Reagan National 03/14/23

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Another runway incursion - Reagan National 03/14/23

Old 16th Mar 2023, 02:49
  #21 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ATC Watcher
I think we are looking at different data bases , my numbers are coming from here : National airports alone ( thre are additionla pages for regional airports) https://www.faa.gov/airports/runway_...=2023&fy2=2022
@ fdr :
Indeed , crazy airport layout to sart with .and once again , a you note , the use on non-standard ICAO phraseology prevented the second cheese layer to do its job. Hopefully one day someone at the FAA will address the phraseology issue . but not to hopeful there.
I am looking here: https://www.asias.faa.gov/apex/f?p=100:28:::NO

This allows certain filters to be applied. I simply set the category filter to cat A and then cat B and counted. The cat C/D/E incidents are vague 'maybe' and 'sort of' events. Those, although not desirable aren't really what we should be focused on.

A category A or B incidents nearly crunched metal and hurt folks.

-GY
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Old 16th Mar 2023, 10:27
  #22 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by GarageYears
I am looking here: https://www.asias.faa.gov/apex/f?p=100:28:::NO
This allows certain filters to be applied. I simply set the category filter to cat A and then cat B and counted. The cat C/D/E incidents are vague 'maybe' and 'sort of' events. Those, although not desirable aren't really what we should be focused on.
A category A or B incidents nearly crunched metal and hurt folks.-GY
Thanks for that site. Interesting. I know quite well the classification having been on airprox qualification meetings. Very subjective depending on which seat you're on but definitively no, B incidents are not at all what you describe .
For instance the latest incident where the controller cancelled the Take off clarance to an aircraft that has not started to move yet will definitively not be included.in A or B. In Europe at least

But in order to learn from errors made one has to look equally at all incidents as it is not the higher incident category that delivers the higest benefits. When I was giving lectures I used the Tenerife analogy, Had the Pan Am 747 vacated the runway at the point it was instructed to do by ATC , or even later had the freqency not been stepped on /blocked , it would have been a minor incident (taking off without clear instructions) that, at that time (1970s) would most probably not have been reported, not by the crews and not by ATC. ., and the major phraseology changes that followed never implemented. We do things very differently today.
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Old 16th Mar 2023, 13:25
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Originally Posted by GarageYears
I just looked at the FAA database and for Cat A and B incidents I get:

2022: 18 category A+B incidents
2021: 17 category A+B incidents
2020: 16 category A+B incidents

To date in 2023 (not even 1/4 of the year in), there have been 7 incidents reported publicly (the database only covers part of January for 2023), so we're about 200% up on prior years at this point.

- GY
The better comparison would be how many incidents up to the same point in the year.. It's quite possible (but unlikely?) that there will be no more incidents in 2023.
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Old 16th Mar 2023, 13:30
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Originally Posted by GarageYears
I just looked at the FAA database and for Cat A and B incidents I get:

2022: 18 category A+B incidents
2021: 17 category A+B incidents
2020: 16 category A+B incidents

To date in 2023 (not even 1/4 of the year in), there have been 7 incidents reported publicly (the database only covers part of January for 2023), so we're about 200% up on prior years at this point.

- GY
2020 and, to a lesser extent 2021, are not typical years for any ongoing air travel statistic.
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Old 16th Mar 2023, 17:12
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" Never trust s statistic that you did not manipulated yourself " or something similar , said Winston Chruchill
To prove you have a higher rate of incidents for a given situation e.g following wrong taxi leading to runway incursions involving Commercial airlines at majot airports , you would need to separate those from the mass. Then find if there is a common denominator.
Takes a lot of efforts .
We still have a lot to learn from the efects of the COVID pandemic,, especially on remaining current, , trainng and cerifying new people during very low traffic , and deviations from normality to accept the sudden raise of traffic .
But based on what I see in my area , there is certainly not a doubling of incidents, but more mediatised ones , yes. , as with FR24 and LiveATC R/T mixed with Twitter we have a lot of amateurs incidents investigators out there..

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