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4th Aug 2018 Junkers JU52 crashed in Switzerland

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4th Aug 2018 Junkers JU52 crashed in Switzerland

Old 5th Aug 2018, 22:10
  #61 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by weatherdude View Post
Just before crash time TCU only left very small gaps in the Segnas Pass area
...
To them, this must have looked like a closed curtain assuming there is no radar in front? ...
Thanks, interesting.
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Old 5th Aug 2018, 22:11
  #62 (permalink)  
 
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If the aircraft encountered a significant `downdraft` and a low `G` condition,then the `trail` may well be fuel venting,leading to possible loss of all engines; obviously then requiring a steep descent if it was stalled for a recovery....
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Old 5th Aug 2018, 22:44
  #63 (permalink)  
 
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This was the wind forecast for the area (1x1 km resolution model) for the crash time (6 UTC run)

Direction/10-min-average

Gust forecast highest (40-50 kph) in crash site area

Gust forecast Saturday 15z
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Old 5th Aug 2018, 22:58
  #64 (permalink)  
 
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The 6z forecast simulated storms in the area for 15 UTC

SigWx forecast for 15UTC
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Old 6th Aug 2018, 02:02
  #65 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by EDLB View Post
With the plane still there without a post crash fire and likely some video coverage from passengers I will be surprised if they don‘t get a solid explanation in the upcoming weeks. There are lots of possible scenarios but why start guesswork when the evidence will come up soon.
Makes a lot of sense EDLB.
So does your hint to the cause of accident.
We know what lack of 'post crash fire' means to the investigator, considering that petrol rather than kerosene is involved, don't we.
Serge
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Old 6th Aug 2018, 04:05
  #66 (permalink)  
 
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Whatever the cause of the vapor trail behind the aircraft, there is one additional piece of glaring information to be gleaned.
The flight path of the aircraft is curving downward, and if you take a tangent to the last part of the curve and compare it to the aircraft attitude, then it is obvious that the aircraft is at a very high angle of attack.
Two points from my mountain flying checkout in Colorado 50+ years ago are probably relevant to this accident.
  • Do your flying in the high mountains before noon.
  • As much as possible, cross ridge lines at an angle so that minimal turn is required to abort your ridge crossing.
Is there any information as to the flying backgrounds of the crew?
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Old 6th Aug 2018, 04:34
  #67 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Machinbird View Post
The flight path of the aircraft is curving downward, and if you take a tangent to the last part of the curve and compare it to the aircraft attitude, then it is obvious that the aircraft is at a very high angle of attack.
Hmm from what source do you assert this ?
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Old 6th Aug 2018, 05:07
  #68 (permalink)  
 
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Hmm from what source do you assert this ?
The red line represents the flight path. The green line is the aircraft pitch axis.

Simple. Mark 1 Mod 0 eyeball.

Last edited by Machinbird; 6th Aug 2018 at 05:47. Reason: Add Picture
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Old 6th Aug 2018, 06:02
  #69 (permalink)  
 
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Well I would be very reluctant to make any such assumption on the basis of a single picture.
Any info on the video this is supposedly extracted from ?
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Old 6th Aug 2018, 07:14
  #70 (permalink)  
FL0
 
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Swiss news portal 20 Minuten quotes an eye witness, a military pilot, who witnessed the aircraft shortly before crash. He claims the plane was in a left turn, when it suddenly pitched left forward, which reminded him of a manoeuvre in case of an engine failure. After that he heard an engine rev up and the plane assumed normal flight again.

I live close to the Ju-Air base in Dübendorf and used to see them on approach. I always wanted to take a flight on them, but I never came to it. It may remain so I'm afraid.
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Old 6th Aug 2018, 07:27
  #71 (permalink)  
 
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From the picutres it doesn't look smoke but only the different colour of the mountain ridge.

Said that I'am really shocked with this incident and I think that there are some elements that can already give us an idea of a scenario. I think that it's plausible to assume that they probably try to cross the pass to the north but maybe were not at the correct altitude (8700 ft) and decide to continue straight ahead to gain altitude or make a 180° left turn which led to a stall.

For me there are some elments which have to be verified, like pilot incapacitation, technical problem and/or fuel leak, but it's really clear that the vertical impact at high speed, it's the consequence of a stall.
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Old 6th Aug 2018, 07:44
  #72 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Machinbird View Post
Is there any information as to the flying backgrounds of the crew?
From JU-Airs Webpage:
2 Captains flying
Der eine Kapitän war 62 Jahre alt und mehr als 30 Jahre lang Linienpilot. Er flog mehr als 30 Jahre bei Swissair und Swiss, zuletzt als Kapitän auf Airbus A330 und A340. Bei der Luftwaffe flog er insgesamt 28 Jahre als Militärpilot. Seit 2004 flog er regelmässig JU-52 der JU-AIR. Er hatte auf dem Muster bereits 943 Flugstunden und war damit einer der erfahrenen Piloten der JU-AIR.

One captain was 62, with more than 30 years experience as airline pilot. He flew 30plus years with Swissair and Swiss, last as captain on A330/340. He was also a military pilot with the Swiss Airforce for 28 years. Since 2004 he regularly flew JU 52 and hat 943 hours on the type, making him one of the most experienced pilots of JU-Air

Der zweite Kapitän war 63 Jahre alt und seit 2013 bei JU-AIR; er hatte 297 Stunden Flugerfahrung auf der JU-52. Er war 30 Jahre Militärpilot bei der Luftwaffe und mehr als 30 Jahre Linienpilot bei Swissair, Swiss und Edelweiss – zuletzt als Kapitän auf Airbus A330 und A340.
The second captain was 63 and with Ju-Air since 2013 - 297 hours on the JU-52. He was for 30 years a military pilot and more than 30 years an airline pilot with Swissair, Swiss and Edelweiss - his last position was Captain on A330/340.

I guess it will be hard to find people that know more about mountain flying in Switzerland than these guys. With that background they probably knew every rock in the Swiss Alps with their first name....
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Old 6th Aug 2018, 07:57
  #73 (permalink)  
 
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I'm a little sceptical that the purported "smoke" is associated with the aircraft at all. It could easily be a merterological effect or even colour on the terrain beyond. The angles look odd to me. Had it made that much smoke eyewitnesses would surely have noticed and commented. We also have no idea at what stage of the flight it occurred, or even if it is video of the same flight so until we see the entire video I fear it tells us very little.

From another forum; post #4 is interesting.
http://www.ybw.com/forums/showthread...144-JU52-Crash
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Old 6th Aug 2018, 07:58
  #74 (permalink)  
 
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There is no need for engine trouble to cause such an accident. This aircraft flew at or above its service ceiling: fully loaded, ISA +17 Celsius. Crash site is at approx. 8500 ft plus the 500 ft you should clear any surface plus nearly +3000 ft density altitude for temperature above ISA adds up to about 12'000 ft density altitude. The BMW radials fitted have much less power than the former Luftwaffe engines (500+ instead of 800+ HP) and are normaly aspirated. Which means that the aircraft was cruising at max. power (which is maybe half of its sea level power) and somewhere near 1.3 times above its rather low stall speed. Now add a 360 for sightseeing and a little bit of turbulence and it may have simply stopped flying even with all motors running perfectly. What adds to this tragedy is that this is the 3rd fatal accident in Switzerland within a few days where high density altitude was probably a contributing factor. 28 persons dead who were all looking forward to beautiful adventure. Sad indeed. The JU-52, after passing the highest obstruction on its flight path, the Lukmanier-Pass which can be overflown safely at 8000 ft, could have reached its destination following down the Rhine valley with no further obstacles to its destination in Duebendorf (LSMD). So it is not inherently dangerous to fly old hardware, but tactics require to honour their lower limits.
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Old 6th Aug 2018, 08:05
  #75 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Hotel Tango View Post
But, is anyone being forced to fly on them? I think it's up to the individual to make that decision. If it worries you then don't do it. I fly on vintage aircraft and feel just as safe as I do on modern aircraft. As you may have noticed, they have a tendency to crash too now and again!
The question is one of informed consent. The commercial air transport industry is exceptionally safe (considering what it does) however a lot of those safety advances don't apply to a 1930s built aeroplane. Do the public truly understand the difference between a modern airliner with certificated 16G passenger seat assembly and one that isn't? Or a performance A aeroplane with whatever a JU-52 is?
You may leave the decision up to the individual, but what if they are not capable of making that decision?
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Old 6th Aug 2018, 08:27
  #76 (permalink)  
 
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Would it be a reasonable assumption to make that with the current hot weather in Europe that the pilots have been caught out by the high density altitudes? Clearedtocross makes a very good point.
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Old 6th Aug 2018, 08:39
  #77 (permalink)  
 
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Swiss media seem to report an eyewitness account by some Swiss military pilot on the ground from ten minutes before the crash who claimed to have seen the aircraft stalling when banking left and recovering with high engine power. If the conditions were so marginal there had been other routes available away from high terrain.

Tagesanzeiger.ch/Newsnet spoke with a witness, a military pilot from the region. He was in his garden when he heard the loud and familiar buzzing of the Ju-52. He believes that the pilots had a serious control problem. He watched as the plane flew across the valley, made a left turn - and then abruptly flipped left ahead. "Such maneuvers were done earlier to simulate the failure of an engine. But nobody does that to passengers, "he says. Then an engine howled loudly, seconds later the plane was balanced again and continued the flight normally.​​​​​​​
https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/schweiz...story/30287960
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Old 6th Aug 2018, 08:45
  #78 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by clearedtocross View Post
There is no need for engine trouble to cause such an accident. This aircraft flew at or above its service ceiling: fully loaded, ISA +17 Celsius. Crash site is at approx. 8500 ft plus the 500 ft you should clear any surface plus nearly +3000 ft density altitude for temperature above ISA adds up to about 12'000 ft density altitude. The BMW radials fitted have much less power than the former Luftwaffe engines (500+ instead of 800+ HP) and are normaly aspirated. Which means that the aircraft was cruising at max. power (which is maybe half of its sea level power) and somewhere near 1.3 times above its rather low stall speed. Now add a 360 for sightseeing and a little bit of turbulence and it may have simply stopped flying even with all motors running perfectly. What adds to this tragedy is that this is the 3rd fatal accident in Switzerland within a few days where high density altitude was probably a contributing factor. 28 persons dead who were all looking forward to beautiful adventure. Sad indeed. The JU-52, after passing the highest obstruction on its flight path, the Lukmanier-Pass which can be overflown safely at 8000 ft, could have reached its destination following down the Rhine valley with no further obstacles to its destination in Duebendorf (LSMD). So it is not inherently dangerous to fly old hardware, but tactics require to honour their lower limits.
Most sentient observation on this topic yet. Salut.
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Old 6th Aug 2018, 08:47
  #79 (permalink)  
 
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They didn't cross the LukmanierPass (6286 ft), they did cross the GreinaPass (7739 ft) which is actually higher and narrow than Lukmanier.
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Old 6th Aug 2018, 08:53
  #80 (permalink)  
Just a numbered other
 
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Maths was never my strong subject, but from the pilot resumés it seems they’ve both been flying from the age of 4?
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