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Cargo Crash at Bagram

Old 2nd May 2013, 21:57
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Yet it is so common...
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Old 2nd May 2013, 22:00
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Sounds looks like this thread has gone in the tank. Plato must have given Surpuls One a thumbs down
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Old 2nd May 2013, 22:13
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I asked a question at #238.

I've had one answer.

If, and I think that it is a big if, the cargo shifted, how did the aircraft ever get nose-down? At the top of the climb, no control inputs would help, other than closing throttles - but that would be trivial at that point.

How could an aircraft do what this one did with a massively aft cofg? My feeling is that as soon as the excessive pitch up, the crew had no options.

What could the crew tell the ap to do that it could fail to do with I/O failures?

So I can't believe that the load shifted. It hit the ground nose down. I was so convinced that I've flown a couple of models this afternoon with serious aft cg. Nose down? No chance.
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Old 2nd May 2013, 22:30
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If, and I think that it is a big if, the cargo shifted, how did the aircraft ever get nose-down?
The right wing drops. Then, the plane is descending. The tailplane is stabilizing the aircraft on the descend. Its not falling as a rock, it has flying abilities. The tailplane works as a dart. Besides all this, excess of bank angles would make the nose descend due to reduced lift on the wings.
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Old 2nd May 2013, 22:37
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Boguing:

Watch the video... the nose comes down as a result of inertia while the aircraft is rolled ~90 degrees starboard during stall and yawing starboard in incipient spin entry.

Once the nose is below the horizon the aircraft gradually returns to level - presumably due to crew recovery effort, but still lacks flight energy, so the nose remains low because momentum keeps it there while the wings remain stalled.


Edit: Lantirn beat me to it, and perhaps put it a bit more succinctly but we're both driving at the same thing.

Last edited by Clear_Prop; 2nd May 2013 at 22:40.
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Old 2nd May 2013, 22:42
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the flight sim guys have been busy as well.

a simulation reconstruction with overlay of the original dash-cam footage

seems reasonably plausible

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=6ca_1367498083
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Old 2nd May 2013, 22:56
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Sorry, but I can't buy into that.

At the top of the climb, the airframe had nothing but potential energy available (height, fuel and engines) that was not enough.

I am not trying to guess the cause of this terrible event, but I am trying to say that cargo shift is not the culprit.

If an aft cg causes a pitch-up like that, there is is nothing that a pilot or flight dynamics that could induce a pitch down?
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Old 2nd May 2013, 22:56
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How could an aircraft do what this one did with a massively aft cofg? My feeling is that as soon as the excessive pitch up, the crew had no options.
It doesn't have to be massively aft, the aft C of G limit for the 747 is 33% MAC if the shift (assuming it was a shift) caused it to only go back a few % beyond this the aircraft becomes unstable.

If an aft cg causes a pitch-up like that, there is is nothing that a pilot or flight dynamics that could induce a pitch down?
I disagree I believe the plane would behave in a similar manner if it is a load shift. The pilots may have had little effect, but aerodynamics will easily.

Last edited by SMOC; 3rd May 2013 at 11:49.
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Old 2nd May 2013, 23:01
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Another cargo shift possibility is this, resulting in hydraulic or flight control difficulties. This A/C was lucky.

Click on the pics (4 shots not sure how to get a direct link)

It's an aircraft loadmasters Facebook group, some interesting pics in general.

Talk about being Lucky! B747 Incident | Facebook

Last edited by SMOC; 2nd May 2013 at 23:08.
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Old 2nd May 2013, 23:52
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The last days worth of posts is very scary with type rated pilots arguing to this extent rather than discussing.

In the end it's the updates to the training that is important as warranted ,and not individuals yelling at each other over postings.

The investigation will sort out the parameters that occurred and the analysis will sort out the possible what-if effects on those parameters. If the aircraft was as some have stated unflyable after the pitch up (nothing could be done?) then all that's left are recommendations (either reminders or updates) for how not to get there in the first place. If the data supports the possibility of an escape maneuver than I would rather look to the Manufacturers (Boeing) to suggest the action than read the acrimony like just occurred today on PPrune.
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Old 3rd May 2013, 00:38
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Snarky though exchanges have been on this thread, I have to say I'm very happy to see these arguments here.
If (allegedly) type-rated aviators can't agree about something as fundamental to safety as stall recovery procedures in a big Boeing then we need more arguments not fewer, regardless of the cause of this particular tragedy.
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Old 3rd May 2013, 00:49
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Yes it looks like cargo shifted aft but can we wait for the final analysis please?
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Old 3rd May 2013, 01:04
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Runaway trim and load shift cause the same nose up pitch. Let's see what happened. The MIA DC8 load shift taking off to the west put it into a building after a full stall. Maybe this 747 did the same, maybe not.
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Old 3rd May 2013, 01:39
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National Flight NCR102 was en route to Dubai from Camp Bastian and had stopped to refuel at Bagram Air Base.


Hang on. Dubai via Bagram for fuel, from Bastion?

Isn't that like, the wrong direction?
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Old 3rd May 2013, 01:45
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Call to tower

According to one blog by Chris posted [6:12] the crew had called tower and indicated loose/shifting cargo. Cargo was 5 MRAPs.

Here are some pics and that blog...
http://www.aviationweek.com/Blogs.aspx?plckBlogId=Blog:7a78f54e-b3dd-4fa6-ae6e-dff2ffd7bdbb&plckPostId=Blog%3a7a78f54e-b3dd-4fa6-ae6e-dff2ffd7bdbbPost%3a43b6b6a8-2c8f-4e02-b6f0-e2603c2063f1
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Old 3rd May 2013, 01:47
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seems reasonably plausible
Re someone's "animation", on what basis is it "plausible"?

Any animation necessarily comes from someone's imagination. As such, it is a cartoon in the sense that it doesn't relate or mirror reality.

The accident aircraft's flight data has not been released. The only basis for a plausible animation is driven by flight data from the QAR or SSFDR, period.

It isn't possible to portray this accident with any meaningful fidelity until the flight data drives the animation.

I would dismiss anything else; that is, if we're serious about finding out what occurred, what position the flight controls were in and what they did and when, what the stab trim was, and so on, we have to wait for the flight data before taking any animation work seriously.

FWIW, I don't think the position of the gear would have made a difference to the outcome.

Also fwiw, the level of discussion is disgusting and disrespectful to posters and readers alike. As professional airmen who do this work and who are speaking in public, by all means differ but please gentlemen, raise the bar.
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Old 3rd May 2013, 02:50
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Does anybody actually know if the flight data and voice recorder survived the crash?

Since thats usually one of the first post-crash points of focus, they would seemingly know by now if they survived!

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Old 3rd May 2013, 03:05
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That is a mighty strange routing for a Bastion - Dubai run. Unless there was no fuel in Bastion or Kandahar, which I find hard to believe. Count on about three extra hours round trip.
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Old 3rd May 2013, 03:17
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National says so

Originally Posted by I.R.Pirate
That is a mighty strange routing for a Bastion - Dubai run. Unless there was no fuel in Bastion or Kandahar, which I find hard to believe. Count on about three extra hours round trip.
The National Air Cargo web page on this matter can be found here National web page for NCR102 information

At the time I am posting some of the content on that page includes
National Flight NCR102 was en route to Dubai from Camp Bastian and had stopped to refuel at Bagram Air Base.
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Old 3rd May 2013, 03:32
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That link didn't work for me but this one did :

Information Related to Flight NCR10
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