It does seem to be more of a ‘real’ shortage than the last two ‘pilot shortages’ I have witnessed though.
What we have likely experienced together is a cyclical wave. This follows the business cycle. Interesting airlines have historically added capacity at exactly the wrong time, including the pilots. There are several theories and a bunch of research into why the industry tends to do that. To my mind the most plausible is that the cost of cost of capital is lowest at the peak of the cycle.
As such it 'signals' management that the weighted average cost of capital is a cyclical low, hence the greatest margins are evident. Airlines therefore could well add capacity beyond the optimum reacting to this signal.
What has governments in most western nations perplexed is the demographic element which will a far stronger signal than that of the business cycle. The retirement rates will impact tax and welfare spends, aged care provision, the stock market and everything else as those boomers retiring become less of an
accumulator and draw down on savings to fund retirement. The suppression of interest rates has feedback loops here also, as the retiree has interest on funds invested at historical lows. It is also likely that those financial planners/advisors who built their retirement plan used assumptions of 6.5-7%
Structural shortages are evident in many industries not just aviation, primarily where barriers to entry (money,time and even acumen) allow the demographic rate of retirements accelerating without a commensurate replacement rate.
There are airlines recognising the real problem this could generate for their business continuity.