From my engineering and pilot intuition, it looks like weight and balance problems were a cause to some degree. As always, there are multiple causes to an accident that have to align for a catastrophe to occur. I don't know what all the other causes are but weight and balance is one of them.
Why is the center of gravity (CG) problem a contender? Keep reading and let me know if it makes sense. CG problems are evident as soon as an aircraft lifts off the runway. Why did the aircraft crash less than 1nm away? Flaps still down from takeoff. Consider that the aircraft is capable of carrying 40+ passengers; this flight only had 25 right? Were the passengers distributed accordingly for correct CG location, or were they all piled up at the rear where the entrance door is located? Did everyone want to sit down quickly, bundle up and keep warm? The cargo area is near the nose, up front behind the cockpit. For such a short flight, I doubt they were carrying goods from the south. A combination of a half booked plane, a light cargo area (only bags), passengers maybe sitting at the rear near the entrance door, these things would create a tail heavy bird. From experience, slightly tail heavy aircraft are great for reducing drag but unstable. Stall recovery is impossible. To prevent a tail heavy aircraft from stalling is nose down asap (if possible) and try to land as opposed to just crashing. You’re options are limited, damage control at this point.
Icing is not a problem; the ATR has extensive icing research done with it and is more than capable of flying in icing conditions. Also, -19C is not a good indicator of icing conditions. It could be snowing out and -20C, if your wings are cold to begin with and clear of cloud, you have a low chance of icing to occur. Icing can't develop in that short amount of time and any wing contamination HAS TO be removed prior to take off. Even a thin layer of frost that you can scrape off with your fingernail has to be removed.
Considering the length of flight and time of day, 18:00 local time, perhaps the last flight of the day, short flight (~80km ~10min?) a fatigued crew, dark outside, a new distraction somewhere that may have caused crew to overlook common items of importance like passenger distribution. Maybe the crew is accustomed to flying the plane full of passengers. So on and so forth.
I will also say that the aircraft are very well maintained, I have a very good reason why I know.
Engine failure would have been out of this world shocking (confirmed both engines were running at the time of the crash).
Last edited by royled11; 22nd Dec 2017 at 03:03.
Reason: correcting terminology