Pilotless aircraft by 2025?...not a chance in hell. The technology might be ready by then for the airline industry.Then there's years of proving flights and finally convincing the public.
Exactly, so removing that existential threat pilots will be needed for at least a few decades.
Imagine you are a HR manager at a large airline responsible for recruiting 'talent' (try hard to imagine as uncomfortable as it would be
)
- You notice volume of qualified applicants is not as historical trends indicate
- You notice many applicants are from in 'the group'
- You notice retirement rates trending up.
- You notice 'those on hold' when contacted do not immediately rush to re-apply
What would you do?
Consulting IR you quickly decide that:
In the past an 'implied threat' controlled the glorified bus drivers.
- You integrate foreign pilots into domestic network on existing terms and conditions
- You give a 'shiny metal jet' to a subsidiary
- Consult with 'stakeholders'
- You perhaps send out a pilot wide email on the technology change coming next week implying aircraft to be pilot less in 5 years
Quietly you also;
- Cut training paths to increase 'output' of line pilots. What happens if the recruited talent has less experience or skills and needs additional training in the simulator? What happens if the regulator says no more cuts to training courses?
- Get a simulator, as the additional training was not something you foresaw; after all pilots are bountiful and this never happened on a sustained basis before!
- Slow acceptances from 'group pilots', thereby delaying shortages
- 'Announce' an exciting opportunity to complete University and enter an internship in the RHS of a turbo prop.
- Allow flight operations to run roster limits (regulatory) as targets. Particularly where the pilots have substantial income at risk, like a domestic contract on the 737.
- Do not allow any extended leave, give the minimum leave over strategically important periods, like Christmas
- Quietly write to the senior pilots approaching 60, to ask for 'planning purposes' their intentions regarding retirement. You have noticed there aren't many replies.
- Take a month off for Christmas, after all you work hard
Upon your return from your well earned break you observe that there is still a problem both with application volume and quality. You may well still get 500 applications, but it is probably best not to tell your pilots that most of those applications come from a PPL with a dream, or from a foreigner not meeting the licensing requirements. Such small omissions change materially and quantitatively the pool of qualified applicants.
Consulting IR again, as you are a diligent 'practitioner' they tell you it is ok, time for some more Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt.