Indamiddle
You raise a good point.
Talking to a manager yesterday brought up an interesting point.
There are a higher number of pilots retiring earlier than both AIPA or Qantas forecast. Approximately 1000 in a decade I was told. These numbers are in an AIPA email. 90-100 retirements per year at this stage with some years higher.
Qantas send pilots a letter approaching 65 asking what their intentions are. A great number don't reply and simply notify Qantas with the minimum notice. A recurrent theme is that many of the senior folk retiring make the statement that I got no notice when you grounded the airline, hence minimum notice is all you'll get in return. They are not required to telegraph their intentions to all and sundry.
A large factor is the increase in unforecast medical retirements particularly in Long Haul. Divisors Have been 185 for a long time on all fleets. Wasn't that long ago 170 was max for Only two BP. It then went to 175. QF didn't fly as far or for as long either.
Brave new world with the 787 flying close to 19-20 hour TOD, all night, doing the equivalent of 195+ credit hours infinatum.
Glad to see the scientific studies into passenger health are going ahead. Sure they will work backwards from the desired answer required and who gives a s$&@ about Crew health anyway. It's not a bonus metric is it?
In the future, Flying direct London and New York will have pilots working harder with more fatigue, more jet lag, more night flying with more stress and more sickness.
Regardless of intended retirements a greater number of pilots will have involuntary retirement forced upon them for medical reasons.
Of course the highest number of divorce occurs and is increasing on the Long Haul fleets.
Perhaps this is the Airline solution? Work the guys and gals so much harder for less money. When the marriages fall apart they will have to work to older age.
Genius. Who says the CEO isn't worth $25,000,000 a year.