Without being a protagonist, would QF have survived in its current form without the CEO?
I suspect had the APA buyout proceeded, fees would have been extracted, the Frequent Flyer business ( Dixon segmented this in 2004 from memory...wonder why?) spun off to reduce the debt load and the various (including 'management') parasites would have jumped well before the short term debt load was refinanced at significantly higher rates. My best guess is the business would have not had sufficient remaining cash flow to carry the higher debt burden.
In
real terms since the little fella got to play in the sand box, Qantas revenue have declined in real terms.The group revenue in FY10 was $13.7 billion, in FY17 was $16.1 billion.
Adjusted for inflation this a real decline. Other peer airlines over the corresponding period have not exhibited the same 'amazing' performance.
- Turnaround achieved with same fleet, same contracts.
- JQ fleet grew from 36 aircraft to around 120 now
- Substantial decline in Qantas tailed flying, net reduction in hulls.
- One 787
Most of the 'transformation' is a decrease in
fuel expense, which given the fleet metrics (lots of 747, A380) means a corresponding drop is a larger order of magnitude reduction for Qantas than say Air New Zealand (who gave up B747 a number of years ago) The other big contributor was a reduced depreciation non cash charge. The biggest loss overseen by Qantas of $2.8 billion was mostly the fleet write down, This write down panicked labour unions to sign pay freezes. Amazingly as soon as that ink was dry the business spectacularly recovered...
Qantas has survived despite its CEO not because of it.
Whilst Mr Joyce is a very wealthy man and lacks no audacity, my personal opinion is that someone of his humble origins could have embarked on a different path, he chose the adversarial model, something many voices in his ear tell him is necessary. Airlines are people business. I say it having worked for them and analysed them for many years. To airline management, the people are reduced to units of cost.
There are exceptions to this model, I chuckle when Qantas conveniently ignores an airline of far better performance just a few hours away in New Zealand.Led by capable people and also a cornerstone of its management under Rob Fyfe was a genuine affinity for staff, such that he personally would spend a day a month out there, working in various areas.
My suspicion is Mr Joyce would likely go no where without his security detail, whisked into an underground car park and home to his security laden building. Sad really.