You may well all be right re cuts. However I'm also conscious that there is (understandably) a well-established "Private Frazer" tradition in these parts. For example I recall in the run-up to the 2015 SDSR there were many consistent and very definite predictions of imminent chainsaw massacre being visited upon defence by the review.
I suspect that with all the "leaks" re the amphibious capability etc we're being softened up so that what actually happens won't be seen as quite so bad after all.
I also tend to look for straws to clutch at at times like these (ie most of the time). One such is the fact that politically young Mr W is in some respects in quite a strong position (as long as Theresa May lasts, which admittedly may not be very long); and will want to make a name for himself. Personally I'd be surprised if he wants to make his mark as doing HMG's bidding in relation to cuts, and to be remembered for that. But I've been wrong before, so who knows.