Originally Posted by GrahamO
How many tens of thousands of pilots are there ? Yes, pilots have some platform unique training, but there are still a lot of pilots around and there are plenty of people who want to do the job.
Adam Smith had a few things to say about that in
1776 in the
Wealth Of Nations. Substitute any occupation that requires a great deal of expense or career risk for that of the law student in Smith's example.
10.1.25 The probability that any particular person shall ever be qualified for
the employment to which he is educated, is very different in different occupations.
In the greater part of mechanic trades, success is almost certain; but very
uncertain in the liberal professions. Put your son apprentice to a shoemaker,
there is little doubt of his learning to make a pair of shoes: But send him
to study the law, it is at least twenty to one if ever he makes such proficiency
as will enable him to live by the business. In a perfectly fair lottery, those
who draw the prizes ought to gain all that is lost by those who draw the blanks.
In a profession where twenty fail for one that succeeds, that one ought to
gain all that should have been gained by the unsuccessful twenty. The
counsellor at law who, perhaps, at near forty years of age, begins to
make something by his profession, ought to receive the retribution, not only
of his own so tedious and expensive education, but of that of more than
twenty others who are never likely to make any thing by it.
How extravagant soever the fees of counsellors at law may sometimes
appear, their real retribution is never equal to this.
ICAO gives essential the same argument as Smith.
POTENTIAL SAFETY RISKS CAUSED BY PILOT SHORTAGE, SECOND HIGH-LEVEL SAFETY CONFERENCE 2015 (HLSC 2015) PLANNING FOR GLOBAL AVIATION SAFETY IMPROVEMENT
1.3 High cost of pilot license, entry-level low wages and reduced career interest. For many students the cost of obtaining the license is a challenge and the low wages for job entry-level pilots (e.g., approximately $22 400 in the United States) is a deterrent when faced with the perspective of having to repay the substantial debt incurred to obtain the license, which may be well in excess of $100 000. Furthermore, other industries (e.g., IT, medicine, banking, etc.) are more appealing to younger generations than aviation.
Can you offer a cogent rebuttal to Smith and ICAO?