The question I have is: If the aircraft in VH registered, it will probably be maintained in BNE by the
VB maintenance organisation. Will the crew operate the aircraft with their NZ or Aussie ATPL? The only reason to operate it under the NZ rules is to have one or two less FAs.
How often will the aircraft have to visit New Zealand? If the aircraft goes Auckland to SYD to Fiji to Syd to Bali to Syd to Fiji etc for three days before returning to Auckland, isn't it Australian operation?
If it is basically an Australian operation shouldn't the Australian Federal Pilots Award be applicable? If the NZ based crew is paid at half the amount of an Aussie crew then what constitutes a Kiwi operation: maybe Auckland to Syd to Mel to Auckland but no more. There needs to be a test for what is a Kiwi or Aussie operation.
The worst case scenario is this: The half paid Kiwi based crews operate on five days trips and spend each night in an Australian city, Bali or Fiji hotel and FERRY back to Auckland. Perhaps a day or two of reserve in an Australian hotel as part of a duty block.
To rub salt into the wounds what would the Australian Tax Office say.? Could they go after the differential between the Aussie and Kiwi tax rate if your family stays in Australia to complete their schooling for example? This is a particularly pleasant thought: $800 to fly to NZ for interview, 21,000 AUD for 737 endorsement, $4,000 to live in Melbourne whilst getting endorsement, a few grand to move to NZ all to get 55,000 NZ dollars on which the differential goes to the ATO. It better be a very quick transition to command.
All in all this is not good.
My forecast is that if Open Skies agreement is signed by the end of the year there will be no growth in Australian based jet jobs for the next three years. All the growth will occur in New Zealand based Pacific Blue, Freedom or Jet Connect. There maybe a couple of SO jobs on the A330 for QF but nothing else. This may be taken up internally as the classic 737 are placed over to Jet Cnnect.
My other forecast is that this will kill Air New Zealand (but not Freedom). They in a difficult situation as it is but picture a scenario where Pacific Blue, Jet Connect (QANTAS) and Freedom will through so much capacity over the Tasman that fares will fall to an unsustainable level that will kill ANZ who relies on these route for their profitability. The over capacity won't affect Jet Connect or Pacific Blue's profitability as their business plan is to make money on the Australian market where they will have a cost advantage over
VB and Qantas.
It doesn’t have to be this way; the Australian and Kiwi market will grow strongly in the next few years (hopefully no terrorism or SARS permitting). The growth will occur as the ASK cost of basing crews in Aus or NZ maybe .1 cents which will be negotiable on a passengers fare (assuming the demand is elastic).
Open Skies will just mean that this growth goes to the Lowest Cost Provider as all companies ensure they will not have a comparably higher cost base.
My two cents...