Originally Posted by
paradoxbox
That makes 4 panel incidents within the space of a month for aircraft flying out of or to Japan.
It seems to me that this has got to be more than a coincidence.
Originally Posted by
DaveReidUK
A coincidence, by definition, is hard to believe. Do you have any evidence?
It depends on how small a sample Japan is compared to all of aviation. Statistically, you determine the "confidence interval" by asking how well the data matches given the "null hypothesis". In this case, the "null hypothesis" would be that there was nothing special about Japan or that specific month - and that any deviation from the norm was created the result of pure chance.
Since we don't have stats from the rest of the world, we have a choice:
1) The confidence level that there is something about Japan and/or this past month that adversely affects panels is very high (>99%).
2) Or, there are many, many panels falling from planes around the world.