The shortage is real it is demographically generated. Whilst HR/IR continue to ignore it, as does the mainstream media it will change profoundly everything from asset markets to pilot supply.
Pilot supply is interesting as it has a few specific traits:
- Acumen- Not everyone is suited to it, nor able to do it.
- Cost- Training costs are simply beyond the reach of many
- Time- It takes an inordinate amount of time to reach ATPL level in terms of hours and experience
- Experience cannot be bought
- Supply is globalized-Myopically viewing a market in isolation (Australia) ignores the globalised supply problem.
Jetstar is not an airline of choice, other than for living in Australia. Qantas is much the same and they are now competing for a reduced globailsed supply.
I would expect (although tightly controlled by HR) that the regional airlines (as in the USA) and indeed GA are really showing the shortage. Cost of living pressures in major cities and time to command at the 'whim of management' is not an encouraging mix. I have read the Qlink (and JQ NZ turbo prop) forum and suspect it is an indication of a structural shortage.
The JQ model rolled out in Australia is a Ryanair lite model as the IR protection although radically decayed, are not as weak as Ireland. Do not forget these executives all go to the same schools, Irish aviation is tight, your Joyce knows O'Leary and indeed a a cousin of IAG CEO Walsh.
The playbooks are all very similar; adversarial models, squeezing labour unit cost. As Horizon Air spectacularly proved, you can keep lower unit labour cost until you have no revenue. Genius.
O'Leary has big problems, his unit cost may be lower than southwest Airlines, but his revenue and profit will be non existent. The stark difference between the two airlines is not platitudes, it is respect. Southwest Airlines respect the contribution people make, Ryanair, JQ et al deride it and with vigour and ultimately it will hasten the beginning of a new paradigm in employee relations.
Of course Australia may be different /sarc