Night watch, I agree that no penalty should be incurred due to a forcast being way off the mark but is it not the case that the a/c commenced the approach at around 5.30 am, and are not SY ATC obligated to open 16R at 6 am if the actual conditions are such precluding the use of 34L......and there in lies the problem.
Perhaps if we could backtrack a bit.......actually about 8 hours when the SQ a/c dispatched from Singapore which subsequently arrived without the required fuel to hold till the cessation of the curfew.
There may be a reason for this.....ie the a/c may have had to cruise at a lower level due atc restrictions,which would incur a penalty of about 2.5% for 4000 ft below the planned level and in this case would come to about 2500 kg as the burn on this flight would be in the vicinity of 100 tons. However this would require a step below for the entire flight........extremely unlikely due minimal traffic on this route at that time of night and the use of RVSM airspace, plus the ability of Australian atc to issue non standard RVSM levels under radar control to help out a/c that are "caught" in a bind so to speak.
Also there could have been an extra burn associated with diverting around wx as the ITCZ is on it's march south but this would be minimal.
Cruise winds may have been way off resulting in a 30 minute earlier ETA....however this would require a mean tailwind of 35 knots above forcast for the entire 8 hour flight or, as winds in the equatorial region are quite light by comparison with their more temperate brothers, 75 knot t/w above forcast for the final 4 hours........possible but unlikely.
Finally, after correctly entering the winds for the flight in the FMC, had the progress page shown an arrival time 30 minutes before the cessation of the cerfew then a simple entering of LRC in the cruise page or a cost index of 0 in the performance page would have made this a non issue. Even in the enroute stage a change of alternate from Melb to Canberra would have given them another 4 tons in hand assuming CB was suitable. The required 30 minutes hold till the end of the curfew is of the order of 5 tons....less if holding enroute at altitude though not by much.
What about diverting enroute to top up...Darwin/Cairns/Townsville/Brisbane all spring to mind.
So now we arrive in SY without the required fuel as specified under the ANO's.....How about using the word require RX 16 R and screw the fine.....far better than putting your a/c and passengers in a position outside the certified limits of the a/c.
Lastly, he could have declared a mayday ("fuel emergency" went out when Jesus last played fullback for Jerusalem) and demanded 16R.
Granted the curfew is a crock of sh!t, but I think I have demonstrated that this should never have happened....or been allowed to happen in the first place if the crew was on the ball and used all options available to them.
Finally BIK, LHR does allow a certain # of "earlys"....actually I understand they have a quota per month otherwise the obligatory hold at LAM.