Originally Posted by
cxorcist
I actually DO wonder. CX could easily claim some BS about type changes, base administration expenses, and/or the new CMP says XYZ. Even if none of it is true, we know that won't stop them from claiming it. They used the type change argument in Paris even though the whole world knew it wasn't why the base was closing. That's the problem with lying so much... Even when you tell the truth, nobody believes you anymore.
I'd conjecture at the end of the day it would depend on how much clout and credibility you'd have in the jurisdiction you wish to operate considering the overall situation. And on your track record there. And on how much the host nation wishes you to continue to operate there (this could involve politics as well--even to the extent of your continuing to be an employer within the jurisdiction and as such contributing to the overall economy and tax base).
One thing I think that is often overlooked is that a carrier (especially one foreign to the host nation) operates within that nation at the pleasure of it--and to its and the host nations' mutual advantage. And there IS competition for operational slots within many of those countries--often between competing carriers who are based in the same place.
So I believe it's best to be well behaved and do the right, safe, and ethical things. Lest that nation kick you out and banish you completely.