Originally Posted by
Melchett01
Apparently he is entirely rational and not stupid. Someone needs to explain that one to me because frankly when the rest of the world is growing increasingly concerned about your behaviour, surely the rational thing isn't to go out of your way to prove them right. There is no interest in instigating regime change, just ensuring stability. And yet everything he does seems to be driving towards the route of regime change. It frankly just doesn't compute on any sane level.
There is an
article in the NYT that makes the most sense to me, as a description of rational motives behind Kim's behavior. Basically, it's all about pressuring China. It seems the latest nuke test was timed to embarrass Xi Jinping just as a major economic summit was meeting in China, and some of the other missile tests were timed for impact in China, not US holidays. To summarize the article:
“Kim knows that Xi has the real power to affect the calculus in Washington,” said Peter Hayes, the director of the Nautilus Institute, a research group that specializes in North Korea. “He’s putting pressure on China to say to Trump: ‘You have to sit down with Kim Jong-un.’”
What Mr. Kim wants most, Mr. Hayes said, is talks with Washington that the North Korean leader hopes will result in a deal to reduce American troops in South Korea and leave him with nuclear weapons. And in Mr. Kim’s calculation, China has the influence to make that negotiation happen.
Kim wants US forces either reduced or completely out of South Korea, he's not just looking for a deterrent to regime change in NK. And it looks like he'll keep stretching the limits with provocation until that happens.
The real questions going forward, as I see it, is whether both Kim and Trump would accept just a halt to joint military exercises with SK, in return for a halt to missile and nuke tests. Or will Kim keep pushing the button and insist on actual US troop/asset withdrawals in SK. That ain't gonna happen, but a cessation of exercises might be do-able. The question is whether that's enough for Kim to halt further testing. That should be the US goal (IMO), because what he's got now in the way of a physics package and missile system isn't very good, and will only get better if they can keep testing.