PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Is it a good time to start pilot training right now?
Old 30th Aug 2017, 19:16
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G SXTY

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Join Date: Nov 2000
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A seven-year cycle is what I'd always been told
Yep, that's about right.

1990 - Job market collapsed due to Gulf War 1

+11 years

2001 - Job market collapsed due to the 9/11 terrorist attacks

+7 years

2008 - Job market collapsed due to global financial crash

+9 years = 2017 . . .

Predicting the industry's ups and downs isn't an exact science, and the intervals vary, but there is no doubt that the job market for pilots is highly cyclical. No-one knows when the next downturn will come, but my gut feeling is that it's not far off. It just needs a trigger; Brexit / recession / terrorist spectacular / El Presidente Trump nuking someone for dissing him on twitter? Take your pick.

If you are cautious (and IMHO you're right to be) then just carry on with the hours building and ATPLs. Unless it's changed you'll have 3 years from passing the last ATPL exam to complete the IR, which gives you time to see out the worst of any downturn - even if the industry collapsed on the day you get your exam results. As has been noted, with the exam credits in your pocket you could complete the CPL/IR in just 3 months. At a time of your choosing. The word is flexibility.

Any commercial flight training is a calculated risk, but committing to an integrated course is a bigger financial risk, as well as taking a punt on the job market further down the road. Don't expect the likes of Oxford or FTE to slow down your training schedule just because there are no jobs...

(And by the way, as a 20 year-old time is very much on your side. There is no screaming urgency to qualify - I passed my IR and got my first airline job in my mid-thirties).
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