The other dynamic is that in previous down cycles... you had pilots who were on legacy contracts with good pay and conditions. Who might have either been protected or had room for trimming when terms get downgraded for business survival.
These days... I'd expect the number of good contracts to be thin on the ground. Therefore those near the end if careers may not tolerate any more trimming. This creates more leavers and more new spots.
In addition. I notice a change in industry and transport practace in relation to smaller more regional routes. More planes, more flights = more pilots... also equals possibly even lower pay.
All feeds into the crystal ball..... also.note that CAO and other flight schools are looking for instructors which tells me that the guys are getting snapped up. Yet the schools are only looking for freelance replacements due to the lack of numbers per month on the big courses.
Plus the CAA have been issuing less cpl's year in year for the past few... and airline plane orders are at a high.
Can we really expect any industry to continue on cycles established decades ago with vastly different pressure and drivers. Can we rely in a 7 year cycle anymore.