I think it will be difficult for Norwegian to displace TCX from their position at MAN. It is obviously not impossible, but there is no obvious "extra" or material price discount that Norwegian can offer above TCX.
Additionally, Norwegian continue to post large losses. This can be put down to any number of factors, and can of course be covered by investors. However, it does not suggest that Norwegians current model is a runaway success or that it is repeatable in any number of markets.
The only thing Norwegians presence would do at MAN would be to encourage IAG to respond and create a race for the bottom. This may prejudice VS and UA in the short run, and undermine the market in the mid to long term.
AA/BA will undoubtedly be back (assuming they leave at all) but in the meantime, opportunity for TCX, VS and UA to grab market share.
They won't displace but IMO it's really a case of when not if they come to MAN once they have more MAX aircraft. We know they were interested back in December/January. They have big losses but it hasn't stopped them so far!
Don't know a lot about TCX and costs but suspect DY will be lower so they will squeeze TC a little and grow the market mostly the latter.
I don't think IAG would respond because it's not really their home base where you would see much stronger action in BCN, DUB, MAD, LGW etc to defend themselves because they have to. They cannot afford to fail at home.
What sort of passenger base do TCX attract, is there still a lot of IT bookings on the US routes or just evolving more and more to Flight Only O&D?
A TCX J product and a good one is something that could really help them and increase profits but I guess its for them to determine if they should move away from holiday market.
Just my opinion of course, but it wouldn't surprise me if the route was losing money due to the inferior Y product and the aforementioned delays/cancellations. I refuse to believe it's entirely down to MAN not being as lucrative as, say, the London market as others are demonstrating with their growth in recent years. That said, it's still a loss nonetheless.
As others say, it's an opportunity for VS/DL, United and Thomas Cook to increase their market share and hopefully this will make the future of their offerings more secure if sufficient AA customers don't want to travel via LHR/DUB/ORD/PHL. In the case of VS/DL, it's probably too late for this winter but maybe it could lead to a more frequent schedule being run next winter?
I would question if it's loss making, could well be a case of them able to make more flying the 752 in the US rather than to MAN or downsizing 757/767 fleet. If the route was making big losses its really hard to see why they wouldn't cut their losses over winter as well.
They have a bad rep among the public but it hasn't really impacted them significantly. Passengers are fickle especially the Y end of the cabin.
Sometimes those interested in aviation have a better view ops wise but vast majority of the public won't and that's why they have gotten away with a poor standard of service.