While clearly things are drifting badly in Saudi Arabia, I think the real crunch may come, not when King Fahd dies, but when Abdullah dies. Crown Prince Abdullah has been pretty much running the show for a few years already, and I think he is a tough cookie in the sense that he has already admitted that the Saudi economy is facing problems and that he is realistic enough to know that some limited reforms have to happen. However, when he goes (he's healthy enough now for a 78-year old), then I think you may see the political fragmentation many have forecast. At least, I will give some credit to the Americans for finally seeing some sense in their Saudi policy and disengaging from the country, ie. removal of military forces and gradually lessening their oil dependence on that country and the Gulf in general.
On another front, how can British Airways announce they are flying back into Saudi Arabia the day after they discover a truckload of missiles there ? Or has the missiles story been exaggerated ?