Hi Crab,
Not necessarily - let's move into speculative mode.
We are on the cusp of a major change in the way that airspace is managed; rather than continue to use RADAR as the sole means of separation, States are moving to systems, such as ADS-B 'out' where each aircraft self-reports with its 'position' and 'state' data. More, each aircraft can be equipped with ADS-B 'in' which allows the capture of all messages sent by other aircraft. It doesn't take much imagination to envisage a situation where each aircraft becomes its own controller. Look at this extract from 'Autonomous Flight Rules - A Concept for Self-Separation in U.S Domestic Airspace' by Wing and Cotton:
The restrictions common to IFR operations today have their roots in the earliest days of instrument navigation, when aircraft first ventured into the clouds (ref. 1). Without being able to see the ground to navigate or other aircraft to remain clear, operators had to rely on ground-based radio navigation aids and separation services, the latter provided through procedural separation and later also through radar-based separation. The human element of Air Traffic Control (ATC) inherently limited the number and traffic flow configuration of aircraft that could be safely managed. This gave rise to most of the IFR restrictions in place today, such as ground delay programs, congestion-based reroutes, speed and miles-in-trail restrictions, altitude level-offs in climb and descent, and use of structured routes and cardinal cruising altitudes. These restrictions, necessary for human controllers to meet their primary responsibility of separating aircraft, were derived from the limited technology available as air traffic services were formulated.
An alternative provision for separation assurance called “self-separation,” now enabled by emerging technologies, allows the responsibility for separation to be distributed among ground and airborne elements. Evolved over many years of research and development (refs.2-10), self separation places the responsibility for maintaining safe and legal distances from one aircraft to all other aircraft with the pilot, using on-board systems and procedures designed to support this function. While executing the self-separation function, such aircraft would be operating under a flight status proposed here called “Autonomous Flight Rules” (AFR). Through new policy and a significant update to the Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR), the equipment, training, and procedural requirements defined in support of AFR operations would be established so as to meet the stringent safety requirements of a primary separation system. Aircraft and pilots operating under AFR would maintain separation from all other aircraft in the airspace, including Visual Flight Rules (VFR) aircraft, IFR aircraft, and other AFR aircraft. AFR aircraft also would self-separate from terrain and obstacles, hazardous weather, and operationally restricted Special Use Airspace (SUA). They are thus removed from the ground-based ATM system’s responsibility for the separation function whenever operating under the rules of this application. Normally, this application spans from the time the AFR aircraft are released by the Air Navigation Service Provider (ANSP) during departure until they are reinserted into the landing flow to a runway. The AFR aircraft cooperatively share their current trajectories and any changes with other aircraft and the ANSP, and they adjust their trajectories as needed to achieve the ANSP arrival plan for that aircraft.
The paper continues with a discussion of how this concept would work but, for now, look at what has been provided and see if this paradigm change could be adapted for use in uncontrolled airspace in the lower reaches of the airspace (where we and the drones operate).
Yes it would require 'electronic visibility' from all users but, in an age where such devices are half the size of a matchbox and the costs are dropping to the point where they could be put on all drones (remember billions forecast), it will not be long before all are so equipped.
Jim