Originally Posted by
Skipness One Echo
They're a chaotic mess behind the scenes IMHO.
If Norwegian were to take a serious look at MAN with 787s, the public would likely choose DY as they'd be cheaper with shinier aeroplanes. Norwegian have become what VS used to be. A dangerous upstart challenging the major players' lethargy and lack of investment in some cabins. VS went all establishment and as a result lost their upstart mobility. Virgin are the airline your parents think are cutting edge. Not that I don't have a soft spot for VS but DY are the real deal. A brutal exercise in capitalist economics, devoid of misty eyed thinking. They are now achieving critical mass. Thomas Cook are, on the other hand the most local of players at MAN but they lack global reach or ambition and have a fraction of the expansion potential. They may have put the brakes on VS doing better at MAN only to lose out to an incoming Norwegian invasion. MAN is perfect for Norwegian long haul, they're everything MAN needs. Growing global reach on short and long haul with so many aircraft coming they have to go somewhere.
You could well be right about Norwegian's potential to oust TCX at MAN but I wonder if they have missed the boat? MAN's capacity for the next few years is going to be very constrained during the morning North Atlantic peak. There's already up to 6 TCX A330s on Pier C, along with TS, EY, and the EK A380 on Pier B there's no heavy gates left at T1. At T2 where 2 wide body gates have just been taken out, the remainder are all over-subscribed, with VS having up to 5 on the ground, and then CX, SQ (2 on some days) with both HU and SV now daily. TCX would have to blink first to create the opportunity but right now that doesn't seem likely. The other way might be if they could persuade passengers to depart in the mid to late afternoon, arriving in the US late evening. Other than that I think we might see Norwegian become a niche player at MAN with 737MAXs to obscure East Coast destinations, which will have minimal effect on the incumbents and so could be a good thing overall.