There are many accounts of the disappearance of Amelia Earhart and Frank Noonan during their planned route from Lae PNG to Howland Island in the Central Pacific region. During my time flying 737's with Air Nauru (1976-88) at least three of our routes crossed their presumed track in the region of the then Gilbert Islands now called Kiribati.
Flying at high altitudes we could look down and see the literally thousands of small cumulus clouds dotting the vast ocean from horizon to horizon - each cloud casting a shadow on the water. With their Lockheed flying over the Pacific among those low level clouds where the base of the fair weather CU would be around 1000 ft and tops around 3000 ft, any one of those shadows could be an atoll. It was an illusion of course.
The distance from Lae to Howland Island (itself a tiny atoll albeit with an airstrip) is 2556 statute miles. That's a long way in a small twin engine aircraft not much bigger than a Piper Chieftain and certainly not as fast.
The estimated flight time was between 20 and 23 hours passing through two time zones. It was reported they flew at 12,000 ft some of the way which raises the spectre of mild hypoxia made worse with time at that altitude.
It is after the sun rises, that thousands of small Cu clouds start to appear. Even if only 10 miles off track after 18 hours plus of flight (remarkable navigation for a tired crew) and flying between these clouds, it would have been almost impossible to spot a tiny atoll under its duty Cu among the hundreds surrounding it. Many times I have approached Nauru on descent, unable to spot the island among the low clouds until 15 miles out - keeping in mind we were using the island NDB and DME so we knew where we were
I am not a conspiracy buff and therefore don't believe any other reason for the disappearance of Amelia Erahart's Lockheed other than the limitations they faced. That included sheer mind-blowing fatigue, lack of reliable navigation aids, purportedly no autopilot, the huge distance they set out to fly in a small aircraft to a tiny atoll which was their destination. Add to that the almost impossible task of seeing land under seemingly 8/8ths small separated Cu cloud cover with a base of 1000 ft tops 3000 ft which in that region is typical of Pacific weather at sunrise.
After sunrise in that remote part of the Central Pacific called the Gilbert Islands, every shadow cast by the sun looks like a tiny atoll. With a thousand shadows, which one could be Howland Island to a desperately tired crew?
Last edited by Centaurus; 3rd Jul 2017 at 15:05.