Local knowledge from YMTG - the weather sensor is located at the BOM site on the west south west side of the airfield. This side also has some hills and LOTS of plantation forests.
This topography/vegetation provides for quite different weather conditions at the airfield when compared to the AWIS even though they're only a few hundred metres apart. It's common to get visual off an instrument approach even when the AWIS says you shouldn't be able to.
That said, OVC002 is unlikely to be flyable weather allowing for variations but if there is any wind at YMTG (and the 5kts shown on the METAR may be enough) then it will fluctuate through ranges of conditions fairly quickly. YMTG to YPAD is dead flat after 10nm (apart from the Adelaide Hills but the forecast there woudl have been fine - there could have been a "if I can just get to the coast...." mindset going on. I'm curious how/when the pilot got there - it would have to have been the night before one assumes.
I'll agree with those above who've said that there is no pressure at all from AF to fly - I've cancelled flights for weather that wasn't terrible but wasn't great and never has anything ever been even remotely insinuated by the staff that this was a problem or a hassle or it would somehow count against me in future - even where appointments were then missed as a result.
Sad day for the families of all but especially the passengers. The word was out in town very quickly that the crash had happened and that AF passengers were uncontactable. Took a long time for confirmation though.
I hope AF weathers the storm, learns any lessons needed and keeps on going.
UTR