Speaking numbers, if one recalls GW1 each GR1 MOB of 3 Sqns supported 1 deployed Sqn. Why? Firstly the modification of "fleets within fleets" to supply jets to the same standard - and with enough airframe hours before their next major service which couldn't be done deployed. Second there was the need to deploy enough CR pilots for 24 hour operations, i.e. 3 or pilots per airframe instead of 1 to 1, whilst leaving a cadre at home to continue training and assessing the LCR crews as they worked up. Thirdly of course the need fo roulement and replacement for combat losses. Lastly the engineers and other essential support forces. We had got too used to the idea of the 3 day war where everyone was expected to work 247 before the nukes dropped and sustainability wasn't an issue. Then add an OCU of Sqn strength and an OEU.
Assuming the above even a single deployed carrier with 2 Sqns implies 2 MOB, say MR and LM each with 3 Sqns plus an OCU, 7 x 12, then add 30% for maintenance and attrition during fleet life, and you reach a requirement for 100-110 airframes. And that is before you even start to envisage the need to surge man the second carrier.
I really don't see how anyone envisages splitting the buy to include non-carrier capable airframes. And that's before the surviving Harrier Mafia VSOs weigh in on the advantages of STOVL for land operations in an era where everyone has UAVs and PCMs.