In considering the idea of split purchase it needs to be remembered that the commitment to 138 airframes is "over the life of the programme" - a typically Sir Humphrey qualification that it's all too easy to overlook. I have heard it suggested that the ambition is for an F35 fleet eventually comprising four squadrons.
If true (and I don't know if it is) I'm guessing that would imply a total uptake of around 90 airframes (long term attrition etc). Which magically leaves 48 left over - which, depending on just how long the programme runs, would allow for a final batch of very late model Bs to replace the early airframes and equip the carriers in their later lives.
Were that to happen, the question becomes how small a fleet is viable. Two sqns each if As and Bs sounds a bit meagre - would it be tenable?
The surge question is also important. "Surge" seems to have been adjusted down to 24 (presumably enough for many scenarios) and my guess is that the RAF brass will be briefing that the availability of two carriers means one available at all times and nothing more, thank you very much. But loss of the flexibility to go beyond 24 in extremis sounds to me like a fairly major disadvantage and a lost opportunity to exploit the carriers to the full.
The alternative is that my interpretation is wrong (wouldn't be the first time) and there is no need for a replacement batch in later years. If that allowed more than four sqns concurrently then a split purchase might be more viable.
Last edited by Frostchamber; 23rd Jun 2017 at 20:35.