I offer the following with some reluctance. Without wishing to second-guess the crew, for I was not there, I have seen some crap on here (who'd a thought?) about what a Conquest can and cannot do.
My personal belief is that like the vast majority of accidents, this one too shall be largely due to the errors, misunderstandings, slips and other human failings of the very experienced and much loved people in the front. From the little I know of the background to this flight, I am of the opinion that it is the consequence of CASA bureaucracy and administrative intransigence rather than any innate failing of any of the 3 men, may they rest in peace.
Data at 1630 for 30/5/17 from Weatherzone.com.au
Performance data from AFM supplement for STC SA00487SE (GWI Phase I and II)
Renmark Elev 43'
QNH 1028.5 = Press ht -400' (say SL)
Temp 12.5
Assuming XMJ was at MTOW and had the VG Kit mod (cringes in anticipation of Gaunty's reaction to mention of VG kits)
Performance from the AFM gives a SE Climb rate of 648 fpm, which of course presupposes everything configured just so.
Stall Speed Flaps up/Gear Up 92 Kts, or 86 kt Flaps T/O
ASDR 3700' (1,127m)
Accelerate-Go 4340' (1322m)
Renmark is 1740m in length.
Takeoff Climb Gradient should be 3% at 100 KIAS, with gear DN and flaps TO (ie: 2nd Segment) . Wind was 8-12 kt SSW (maybe 4-6 kt headwind). RoC should be 300fpm.
OEI RoC 650 fpm @120kt with gear up, flap up, inop Feathered, 3-4 deg bank (ie: 4th segment). Usual Cessna subtractions provided of -300 fpm for Gear down, -200fpm for Flaps T/O, -800fpm FLaps LDG.
Nonetheless, that's a fair margin of performance before you start descending. By my reckoning that all exceeds the FAR25 requirements.
Some years ago when I did my C441 Endorsement with Flying Bear he asked what I had flown previously and I said that most of my recent multi was on a C404.
"Oh Good", he said, "The climb rate in a Conquest on ONE engine is very similar to that of a C404..." (My heart sank) "...on BOTH engines"
...and he was right.
While it is very nice to have all these simulators and things these days, I don't recall King Airs and Conquests dropping out of the sky 25 years ago when I was a young bloke. What has changed?
Gaunty, do you remember Conkys and King Airs falling out of the sky 25-30 years ago? They had simulators then. Why do you insist on simulators now?
I have strong views on this that I won't air here because I don't want people thinking I am judging the 3 good men lost this week.
...but the GA industry has to tighten things a bit and CASA has a role to play in funding and facilitating an investment in skills for the top layer of GA check & trainers.
Last edited by Horatio Leafblower; 2nd Jun 2017 at 13:45.