Originally Posted by
dClbydalpha
I think it's important to make a distinction between confusion and incorrect SA.
Confusion is a lack of understanding or lack of confidence in the information presented. This crew showed no sign of questioning that accompanies confusion. Compare this with the transcript of AF447, where everyone is trying to grasp what is going on.
I am convinced that this crew started the last phase of the flight with a clear, albeit incorrect, mental picture of what was ahead and how they would deal with it. Nothing in that aircraft, crew, training, procedure or technology was compelling enough to cause a re-assessment of that mental picture. In fact, it appears that most cues were readily incorporated into the existing SA. Until the moment that something untoward was seen on the electroptics.
This is on the money. Easy to remain confident in the SA now as generally it is very good. Unfortunately, mistakes are only really identified after they have caused major damage.