Lots of comments about the wind, many of dubious import, but one obvious observation is that the wind could have caused a misjudgment as to the turn, followed by the overcompensation described above.
Why on earth is it a circling approach here anyway? One of the busiest GA airports around, very noise sensitive, not the best approach lighting on RW01. Surely in this day and age at least an RNAV app could be built for 01.