Keg.
Qantas have a total of 15 787 options at guaranteed purchase prices till 2020.
That means 7 remaining should QF choose to take them up.
The others are only purchase rights without the price guarantees and without guaranteed slots till 2025 so they still have 7 years to make a decision on those.
Should QF take up the remaining 7 by 2020 then Joyce has hinted that will be when the 6 remaining jumbos will go. Could be waiting for ETOPS to fly JNB/SCL before replacing the last 6 747s.
8 787 replace 5 744 and IF the 7 remaining come it's likely 6 744 go for a net gain of 1 in the next order.
In total 15 787 in and 11 747s go. Net gain of 4 aircraft so at least it's something. Lots of premium seats so must make lots of $$$$ compared to a Very low yield JQ 787 that is smaller. West Australian Pravda saying PER-LHR 42 J seats at around $9000 a ticket and 28 premium at approx $4500. 166 economy approx $2300. Sold out and Very high yield. Fuel burn is very low(the highest cost), maintenance cheap too. Crew costs can't be that far off JQ either. Easily Half price SOs too compared to 747.
Certainly it looks like 787 is a long haul aircraft for Qantas for at least a decade.
With the higher productivity of crews flying the 787 I don't think it will be huge numbers. Talk is massive retirements will be the growth driver not new hulls. No LWOP extensions and QF been asking for pilots to return.
Good luck to those applying.