I think what TM might be saying is that regardless of restrictions in EAs Qantas management will try to play the SH pilots off amongst themselves in order to get better terms and conditions for Qantas.
Why wouldn't they try? Qantas would just be doing their job. They have professional negotiatiors and a CEO willing to threaten if you don't take X you'll lose the aircraft. Pilots will cave in like a Jenga block. Look at the Crew rest issue on the 787. It was not the EA stipulated standard. One threat from Qantas and the union accepted it despite everything that was traded away for the jets.
AIPA also have a poor record currently of standing firm. What if we missed out seems to be the negotiating theme. Just get the jets and worry bout everything after.
Qantas have already achieved it in Longhaul on the 787. There were a lot of false stories that were never verified, or came from a so called manager, but it had the desired effect.Who cares about pay and conditions because If we don't sign this ASAP and we miss out was ALL that you heard and still do.
It's fact that 8 787 will replace 5 747 so it's 63% a replacement type right now.No one in AIPA or QF ever said the 787 was a replacement type. It could well replace 100% of the 747s shortly.
Pay and conditions are less.
I put it to you that it doesn't matter if Jetconnect, Cobham,Network can't do the flying for the QF A320. From the pilots perspective Jetconnect already fly an identical aircraft, flying old QF routes, wearing a QF uniform for 40% less.
All Qantas have to do is leak "fake news" to a great number of SH pilots who will believe any scare story and you'll have people volunteering up T+Cs with fear of what might happen, fake or otherwise.
Your guaranteed to watch QF pilots self erosion of pay and conditions.
The QF negotiators will always hold the upper hand because the pilot body and AIPA don't have the stomach to hold firm against rumours that Group Entities will take it if pilots don't say yes. If you don't sign X then entity Y is chomping at the bit to do it.
Qantas will win as many concessions in SH as they did recently in LH.
Can AIPA or pilots really maintain the legacy conditions, compared to Jetconnect,Cobram,Jetstar to fly the same sized aircraft on the same routes?
Plenty of exhausted, poorly paid and type rated JQ A320 drivers willing to do it for less.