I guess that the articles published by trade magazines and online reporting concerning the shortage are not in your reading list, nor do you actively fly as a CFI, where you will see very few applicants for the commercial certificate, much less the ATP compared to several years ago, and you will not have read the advertisements for pilots from the regional carriers offering huge salaries and bonuses, including offers of a 2 day guaranteed course to pass the ATP written, nor would you have been working or supervising at a Part 135 or 91 operation where there are few, if any, suitable applicants for the many vacant positions, nor talked to any of the small airport managers in the country who have had to shut the doors of their terminals because the number of flights -per - day has dropped below the level needed for them to pay the salaries and remain open, nor worked as a CFI and had only two students per week despite being at the school with your several buddies who also have had nothing to do.
Never mind, you are doing OK and able to take advantage of the fabulous offers of employment at huge salaries. If there are no pilots coming into the industry to replace you and the others who have moved up, what is it to you? If they shutter more airports, close more flight training schools and bankrupt more regional carriers, that is not your affair, right? Why should you care one whit so long as your salary is paid on time?
Or maybe you are right and I am just imagining it all. There are actually lots of qualified pilots out there, all experienced and great at CRM, ORM, can read a QRH and a GOM with the best of them, are able with a single bound to jump into any airplane out there and fly it well, safely and with great enthusiasm so long as the pay is fantastic so they will feel loved. I should judge applicants not on how well they will do the job I want them to do but on how much money they want and the more money the better they must be, right? After all money equals safety and besides, this industry is such low risk that nobody would be hurt if they screw it up.
Maybe I am wrong. Maybe my refusal to employ pilots who are "qualified" and merely suffering from money deprivation is in error. My judgment that they will not do the job I want them to do or are incapable of doing it because despite the paper qualifications they cannot perform it effectively or safely must be wrong too. It is amazing to me how the injection of money into one's bank account will increase ability and skill instantly.
Maybe my opinion that I will pay the going rate at first and increase the pay of a pilot who shows me that I can trust his skills and know he can do the job safely is not the way to do it. I should just pay more and that will magically overcome any reservations I might have.
Of course your opinion that only the majors are capable of making those judgements must also be true.
How about you point me to just one trade article detailing the problem is my imagination. Or show me the FAA statement refuting their previous info of the sudden and precipitous drop in pilot numbers and drop in pilot certificates issued. Or take a photo of your local flight school filled with active students all wanting to fly commercially.
The foreign airlines faced this problem years ago and have for a long time run their own flight schools, often in other countries where the weather is more suitable and private flying is encouraged (like here). Some of our own airlines are starting to do the same, but it takes years to get a youngster up to the point where he can sit in the right seat of an airliner even with their numbers. One of the Asian airlines I flew for gave me copilots on the 747 who had a grand total of 400 hours in an effort to keep up. We insist on 1500 hours just to apply and we think this is a good idea?
Ah, but you are right and I am wrong. I should read the same magazines and trade publications and watch the same TV you obviously do to assuage my concern for the once-great industry we had in this country and learn to accept second class. After all, it is not as if a lowering of standards will result in more accidents and fatalities, will it?
I hope my opinion of such short-sightedness and ignorance does not come on too strongly.