The imminent death of US aviation

[boofhead]

There have been discussions by the FAA to change the 1500 rule so your statement that they have to live with it is patently untrue. Similarly the reduction in time for USAF pilots to fly for the airlines as well as the offer to allow serving USAF pilots to moonlight (not followed up yet). The rule can be changed and will be changed when enough pressure is brought to bear.

The airlines cannot find any 1500 hour pilots because they do not exist. It takes time for the previous candidates to get enough time to be eligible, at maybe 200 hours a year it would take 5 years for the previous airline SIC applicants to become qualified under the new rule therefore the airlines have had to draw from the older, higher time pilots, which are the ones my outfit uses. These pilots would normally not be considered for the airline job; would already be passed over and they would be normally making a living in the 135 world.

Now they have become fresh meat and are paid more than the 135 outfits can ever pay, plus they offer a career including jets, unions, travel and such (I have done that so I know the attraction) not available in the world I now work. I lose more pilots than I can train every year and cannot retain the experienced pilots even if the salaries were doubled.

I cannot use the low time pilots, I need experienced PICs that I can send out single pilot IFR to fly to small gravel runways that might be soft or icy and judgment is not something that can be trained. I don't know you (do I?) but not everyone can do what I need and keep the operation safe. If you infer that 135 operators are not interested in safety you are wrong. One accident will put a small outfit out of business. We will not fly if the conditions do not meet the ORM/training/experience/weather requirements and we take safety seriously. We walk the walk, and in fact I know how airlines (121) work and I believe we have higher standards. We need to.

If we doubled or even increased the pay too much we would go out of business. Our customers can do more now with email/Skype/Gotomeeting etc and do not need to visit as often as they might have done in the past so they will not charter us if we raise the costs too high. The economy is down and there is not as much work for us as there was so there is no money lying around to pay pilots. Reality.

Gas is way higher here than elsewhere in the US, runways are not maintained well and even to get a runway report after hours would cost thousands of dollars paid to the DOT for a service they are supposed to provide as part of their charter. Weather services are poor and the AWOS/Camera services provided by the Feds are down when you need them, sometimes down for months at a time. In many cases flying in Alaska is tough and only a careful and experienced pilot can do this job. If his interest in working for me is only for the money, I don't need him.

I have a lot of pilots apply, few have the hours, fewer have the right sort of hours. Just a few years ago I would not have even invited them in for an interview because their experience did not meet the requirements. Now I have no such luxury and I have an open door but very few make the cut. Unlike the majors I have no apprenticeship plan. My guys must be able to go out on day one and do the job safely. I know that some of the airlines will take a low time pilot and give him a Caravan or 207 to cut his teeth on; how is that working out?

Many only want a second part time job and seem to think they are doing me a favor by offering a few days a month (not necessarily the same days I need them) and if they only fly a couple of times a month how safe do you think they might be then? If they cannot do the job safely should I reward them by paying them more? Give them a bonus? Pension? Company car?

My point is that the rule requiring 1500 hours and an ATP is a bad rule that has unintended consequences. I know that the Regionals are hurting as we are. I can read and I listen. For example there are signing bonuses being offered to those who have the minimums or more that exceed what a 135 pilot would expect to get as a total salary for a year. How can I hold a pilot then? I have to use older pilots who have already completed an airline career and have reached retirement age. In the old days that guy would be 60+ and still have a few years left of energy and enthusiasm. Now he is 65+ and worn out (not all, but many). So if the rule was meant to improve the 121 world, it is costing us in the 135.

If you can read you must know the damage that the pilot shortage is causing. I know that flight training is down. I know this by personal observation and by talking to those in the training industry. Without new blood aviation is doomed. Doomed I say! This is the guts of the problem. If there were still pilots coming into the industry, if there was still the old level of flight training being conducted, if a youngster could see a chance of a career, there would be enough pilots to support aviation as we knew it. Without the new blood the numbers will continue to fall. Standards will continue to drop. More youngsters will turn their nose up at aviation. Drones will take over many segments of the business. Those in the industry now will work harder, get more money, but the industry will dry up and eventually go away. Maybe I am too pessimistic but that's the way I see it.

I just love the attitude of the major airline pilots. "I'm all right Jack". So long as I get mine to hell with the rest of you. Unfortunately that means to hell with the industry and to hell with the future.