The imminent death of US aviation
Since the FAA brought in the rule for a SIC to have 1500 hours and an ATP in order to sit in the right seat of a Part 121 airliner we have seen many signs that this is going to destroy the aviation industry in this country.
Many regional airlines have gone out of business, along with many regional airports, due to the reduction of pilots and therefore the inability to crew airplanes, causing the airlines to drop flights and instead to increase load factors in the remaining flights. This also causes a lot of air rage due to the full flights, and the remaining pilots are working harder, flying more hours and getting less time off, increasing fatigue.
Wages have gone up but it is not helping.
The number of pilots in the US has declined about 40 percent over the last 5 years.
Airlines no longer require a degree as a condition of employment.
Nobody fails a check ride any more because there are too few pilots to plug into the schedule if that happens, instead the check rides are modular so you might fail a part of the ride but only have to repeat that bit to pass.
The majors used to recruit youngsters with about 500 hours and train them their way, so that they could become valuable PICs after some 5 to 8 years. Those youngsters do not exist any longer because practically nobody is learning to fly with the intent of becoming an airline pilot any longer. Getting 1500 hours in order to be allowed to knock on a door for a SIC job would take 8 to 12 years, and involve a lot of expense and effort for very little return. No wonder High School graduates, who were the seed corn for the industry, are not considering aviation as a career any longer.
As you go down the industry to Part 135 and Part 91, you see that the shortage of pilots bites harder. The majors might be able to buy enough pilots but that is at the expense of the smaller operators, who cannot do this without going out of business. There is no stability in the pilot ranks any longer.
Flight training is down in all fields. Flight schools are going out of business. Flying as a CFI to gain experience is a losing prospect due to no activity, lots of sitting around waiting for a student to come in. Except for the flight schools that train foreign pilots; they are going gangbusters.
I talk to the FAA about this (I need pilots and cannot get them. My preferred pool now is retired airline pilots and they are burnt out at over 65 and do not want to fly any longer so they are an endangered breed. The last two pilots I managed to start (Part 135) were over 65 [one was 74] and one was not even a US citizen because none are available with the qualifications I need). Turnover is incredible there is such demand in the airlines for pilots.
Some of the FAA people I talk to acknowledge the problem and accept that this rule is a major driver of the pilot shortage problem but some claim the demand for pilots is due to an uptick in business or low salaries being paid, both patently false statements. Another said that the rule was written by Congress and they had no say. Could not stop it. Funny, I did not see anything at the time that indicated the FAA was not in favor of the rule nor was there much opportunity to protest (and I did protest).
There is a big demand for pilots in Asia and the Middle East, many experienced pilots from the US are taking advantage of that. The USAF does not have any spare capacity and retirements from there are not filling the gap.
The shortage is biting not only here but also in Australia and Europe, so obviously there are other factors driving this. Adding the 1500 hour rule to an industry that is already in decline was bad judgment at the least.
Foreign pilots do not have to meet the 1500 hour/ATP rule so they have a competitive edge. When they get 1500 hours they will jump ship maybe and save our industry for us. I forecast that we will see a lot of foreign pilots flying our skies soon, if we are to survive.
If the FAA backs off today, and goes back to a more reasonable rule (500 hours and a Commercial Certificate?), it would take 8 years to recover, maybe longer. A once great industry, broken by bureaucracy and idiocy.