The easiest way to identify a conspiracy theory is to check for the two common components:
1) confirmation bias : the most pervasive cognitive bias and a powerful driver of belief in conspiracies. We all have a natural inclination to give more weight to evidence that supports what we already believe and ignore evidence that contradicts our beliefs. The real-world events that often become the subject of conspiracy theories tend to be intrinsically complex and unclear. Early reports may contain errors, contradictions and ambiguities, and those wishing to find evidence of a cover-up will focus on such inconsistencies to bolster their claims. If you look at Trafalgars last post you will find a picture perfect example. The motivation behind the Atlas deal is apparently exactly what Trafalgar always assumed it would be. What a coincidence.
2) complexity : ever wondered why conspiracy theories are so ridiculously complex? Because that is often the only way to secure a totally unproven and fictitious story from immediate exposure.
Now, let's look at more plausible options, shall we?
- Leasing requires zero initial capital
- Leasing is totally flexible. No residual cost should there be a need to reduce capacity in the future. New contracts are often time limited, so leasing allows testing the water without risk. Which is , surprise surprise, why so many Cargo Operators are using that option, not only Cathay.
- Atlas really want the contact. Lower cost, extra capacity, need the money, higher productivity, want to get into the market, etc..
- Capacity is needed immediately
- CC is having an effect, but giving in would be more expensive than to lease
PS BC, cargo operation is not as easy to roster as pax ( which operates from A to B and back to A and not from e.g. A to B to C To D and back via E to F to A)
All Cargo airlines have this problem. Ask around. It's complicated.
Last edited by Sam Ting Wong; 3rd May 2017 at 20:39.