You know Neville I believe you are right, but not because of the reasons you postulate.
Australian pilots are stuck with stories of old, a strike from long ago, desperately clutching a paradigm where they are lucky to have a job...
Supply is globalised now and the Asian contracts are getting very interesting. Not enough to send Qantas packing, HR are correct pilots don't leave...and I would be really interested in how exactly Qantas would flood the markets with expatriates, legally.
Could you please explain the mechanism and how exactly it would work, other than paid shills called Flight Operations managers making inadmissible statements to those they know will spread the word?
I am not sure I understand how exactly the supply would be generated (other than assuming no retaliatory action from affected carriers-salary and condition increases!)
Do you understand how much a compulsory redundancy would cost QF?
If only facts got in the way of fear...