SAR S-92 Missing Ireland

[learner001]

Having read the whole thread and the preliminary safety report, published 13 April 2017 by the AAIU, No: 2017-006, State File No: IRL00917016, I keep trying to imagine what made this unfortunate crew (RIP) believe that there would be no conflicting obstacles along their route part in the vicinity of BLKMO waypoint!

In some posts, it was mentioned that the crew may have been aware of the island(s) in the vicinity of BLKMO waypoint. I don't know. If not, by the "Altitude!, Altitude!" alert, at least they eventually became aware, that (provided that it would not be a false alert) there should be 'something' in the vicinity of BLKMO waypoint. What they obviously were certainly not aware of (=because of what?=) is, that the elevation of another 'something' in that same vicinity of BLKMO waypoint is that tall.

Of course, to come closer to acceptable assumptions, we also have to go to the earlier stages of the flight. We want to know all about the training, SOPs, preparation and resources, technical and non-technical skills, operational culture, equipment, and dig even further into the past, the involved organisation(s) and so on... And I am sure, quite some things will turn up...

Besides all that, for a moment I like to look just at the possible 'mindset' of the crew at that particular stage of flight, just under one minute/one-and-a-half miles, before waypoint BLKMO. And how it had come to that 'mindset' in order to (re)act as was done after the "Altitude!, Altitude!" alert and the 'Turn advise' . . .

On their easterly course towards Blackrock, the crews 'mindset' appears to have been that, for now, they were on a relatively safe route. And that they had done all the necessary preparation to commence a further approach to Blacksod from the BLKMO waypoint via BKSDA waypoint. Apparently believing, closely around and including Blackrock, somewhere in the vicinity of BLKMO waypoint, (the islands) heights/elevations being of negligent value, relative to their own chosen height/altitude . . .

Because of that 'mindset', they may have been more focusing now of what was going to come in another six or seven miles ahead. 5 miles after BLKMO waypoint. Something, which in their minds may have appeared relatively more challenging:

Roughly six or seven miles ahead, about a mile before BKSDA waypoint, they would have to enter a bay, having to pass safely through the entrance of a (in the general, 'broader world' picture, probably more obvious than the smaller seeming 'little world' in the Blackrock vicinity) relatively narrow, imaginary (if I may call it that) 'safe corridor' of some 3.5 nautical miles wide (1.75 miles either side), where their actual height of 180-200' would indeed be of concern, relative to the closest initial terrain confinements of this corridor. (North around 148' Duvillaun More Island. And South beginning more than 400' and much higher behind that.) Thereafter they would have to stay clear of coastal terrain and obstacles and possible navigating vessels in the bay . . . (Of course, I realise that clearing vessels should apply as well to the further away from shore stages of the route. But also that may likely be subject to another sort of 'mindset')

It appears to me that along the leg towards BLKMO waypoint the above may have 'grown' a 'mindset'. And ultimately may 'have become and may have been' the eventual 'mindset' for that stage of flight, appearing to come forth by just a very few real 'on the scene' observations that are known to us from the report. Which, of course, are just a tiny little part of a much greater sequence of events and circumstances:

- The choice of NAV mode by PF. (Which was apparently not challenged by PM.)

- The 10 miles range choice of PF of the radar, appearing as a belief of no need for a closer picture. (Which apparently was also not challenged by PM.)

- The first and only radar target call by PM appears to be for two targets, at 6 miles only. In relation to track and heading, the "Ok, so, small target at 6 miles, 11 o'clock" appearing to point to the Duvillaun More Island, the North confinement of the 'safe corridor'. The other "Large to the right there" appearing to indicate the South confinement of the 'safe corridor'. Both radar targets are beyond Blackrock. No mention, indication or remark that anything closer would appear or be searched for. (The "1.3 miles to run to Blackmo..." remark appears to be based on waypoint/nav indications.)

- No SOP (re-)action on the "Altitude, Altitude!" alert by PF nor PM, other than PF just mentioning the remark, in the 'greater-more-miles-mind-set' (10nm): "just a small little island, that is BLMO itself", moments after the beginning and just before the ending of this "Altitude!, Altitude!" alert. When they apparently were right over the Northern island (± 0.6 miles from BKLMO waypoint) of the Carrickduff and Carrickad islands. It appears to be indicating a belief that they would now more or less be in very close proximity of that mentioned "small little island", that would lie somewhere about half a mile down there in the vicinity of the BLKMO waypoint, triggering the alert. The 'mindset' possibly now appearing to preclude another more conscious possibility at such short range. And I think, way deep inside, that I may know what that feels like. And also no challenge by PM. (I can not really believe that the "small little island" remark was the PF response to the 6 nm radar target call of the PM.)

- The initial non-(re)action at all from PF/PM on the initial 'Turn advice' from the rear crew.


It is very sad that this obviously dedicated crew of four appear to have been provided on a mission, to be in possession of all the hard- and software sophistication that you may ever dream of, but for one simple basic navigation tool: a proper basic and uncluttered paper pilots flying map . . . In many organisations, a well-known hint as being the 'top of . . .'

In the meantime, during my writing, a number of posts have come up. So, repeat may be in the above. Sorry for that . . .

With respect, RIP, learner . . .