The other question that I have is when did the Approach transition from Being IMC to VMC.....or did it at all?
As there was no mention of the Blackrock Light being seen....I am of the opinion the crew was IMC until very shortly before impact with Terrain.
In my opinion....the descent to 200 feet headed away from land while over open water is where visual contact with the surface was planned. Then it was supposed to bea VMC transit to Blackrock picking up increasing visual cues along the way in the form of surface lights.
We have to consider what cues would have been visible to a Crew who DID NOT HAVE NIGHT VISION DEVICES beyond the FLIR which was in operation and being used (but in what Mode remains unknown to us).
It was damned dark that night....the Crew were still using. MK I Eyeballs to see.
Just what could they be expected to see?
What should they have seen if VMC?
The Blackrock Light is not incidental if one assumes the Crew thought themselves VMC....but were not.
Is there anyone here that would cruise at 200 feet AGL while IMC for Ten Miles knowing there was any obstruction along the flight path?