Originally Posted by
TCTC
Can anyone point me to a source of information which shows by how much airlines overbook? From an article, in the Guardian newspaper, it seems that it is information which the airlines keep very much to themselves!
No, it's not a secret, it's just a question without an answer. Most of the decent airlines (and I include QF in that regardless of what others think as they have invested millions in very smart software and they combine it with people who have years of experience.
The reason it can't be answered is because there is a variance across all locations because it is based on no-show rates.
How it was explained to me many years ago was that, for example, when QF was operating to POM, people generally want to get the hell out of there so no-show rate is virtually nothing so (and I'm just surmising here) it would be say, one or two pax, maximum. I believe the software and the human element also take into consideration availability of alternatives. You might say London for example has a higher no-show rate because of later than normal in bound connections mis-connecting, etc. So, so many local variances come into it that it isn't possible to pin down. I believe a few years ago VA were just starting to do it and without the background info they just dipped their toe in the water so to speak. I do believe the airlines in this region genuinely (whether they based it on hard historic data and human intuition/experience like QF or just a guess like others) don't overbook to deny boarding but just to maximize the load to, hopefully, 100%.
You see, it varies by day of the week and on some routes by time of day so it can't be quantified unless the question is, for example, how much do you overbook in each class (usually First never because there's nowhere to go, Business if First is present and has seats), on a Tuesday from MEL to SYD at noon. That's why they don't share it because to quote even an average across all routes would be meaningless. They're not being evasive.